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News & Announcements / Re: Developer Blog 39 - Battle Cry of Freedom Part 10
« on: February 10, 2019, 01:33:32 am »
Nice! I love the interior spaces!
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Why did you even include a formula for binomial probability? What you said is right in that each shot is independent, just not sure why you would need to calculate the probability of x misfires in n trials.SpoilerOK, Basic Statistical Binomial probability evaluations:
n= number of times an experiment is repeated (for us 200)
F= What will count as a successfull experiment (for us "success" is a misfire)
n= How many times we need/want a success to occur (for us 1)
n!
F(x)= x!(n-x)! * (Fx)(x(n-x))
So how this works, when we say 1 out 200 times, that means that EACH time you fire your musket there is a chance that that shot will misfire equal to that that one guy will have a misfire when 200 men shoot all at the same time.
This next parrt is where people are getting confused:
Each experiment (Shot taken) is independant. Meaning that the success or failure of one trial(attempt) does not affect the outcome of the next trial(Shot taken/attempt). [
There is a way of making the probability cummulative, (Each failure makes success a little more likely) however we would not want that in this scenario.]
So saying that the chance that 1 of 200 shots will misfire, is actually a failry rare. you may only experience a misfire once every few battles even. So I do not belive this to be a bad idea.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------If there are misfires, it needs to be COMPLETLY random. They should actually ask some historians to estimate the chances of a misfire are and put that into the game. If it is something like every 20 shots than people can count and fire there 20th shot into the air and than reload again.Also, we are not saying an incrimental value. (i.e every 20th shot will misfire.) The purpose of stateting that 1 of 200 accounts that the outcomes are placed at equally likely with each trial yielding a random occurance.I think it should be around 1 in 50 personally. A line of 50 men all fire, 1 of them has a misfire.
I see where you are going with that, however Binomial Probability Distribution does not work EXACTLY that way, but you have the right idea. And I may even agree that 1 of 200 is a little to rare. But I would say no more than 1 of 150 (Mabe as low as 1 of 100...maybe)
(Please Pardon any misspellings and such, I only had 10 min to type this on a break at work)[close]
If there are misfires, it needs to be COMPLETLY random. They should actually ask some historians to estimate the chances of a misfire are and put that into the game. If it is something like every 20 shots than people can count and fire there 20th shot into the air and than reload again.Also, we are not saying an incrimental value. (i.e every 20th shot will misfire.) The purpose of stateting that 1 of 200 accounts that the outcomes are placed at equally likely with each trial yielding a random occurance.
I think it should be around 1 in 50 personally. A line of 50 men all fire, 1 of them has a misfire.
Slavery was the underlined cause of the war. Lost cause believers and revisionists will deny that but the maine cause the the riff between North and South was the slavery question.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Historical_revisionism
http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Historical_revisionism_(negationism).html
Not all historical revisionism is bad, Millander. I earnestly believe that we do need to look over the events and underlying causes of the American Civil War in light of new knowledge of the period and to do so in an unbiased manner.
It's incredibly important to note that the Civil War was not blatantly about slavery at the onset. I'm sure you realize that the Civil War essentially began with the Battle of Fort Sumter (1861), when the Confederate troops under Beauregard began to shell the fort. This leads one to suspect that the war was not begun for slavery, but as an independence movement.
It is a shame that so many deny the large estrangement that resulted over the slavery question, so large that it ruptured the nation into two separate states (or one, depending on your viewpoint). The North and South had different opinions on slavery, but this did not result in war independently of any other factors. Even Lincoln is quoted to have said "My paramount object in this struggle is to save the Union, and is not either to save or to destroy slavery. If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it, and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that" in a letter to Horace Greeley in 1862.
It is also important to note that the Emancipation Proclamation of 1863 did not end slavery in the Union, and would only apply to states "still in revolt". This meant that slavery in the border states was preserved in the border states until slavery was officially abolished (13th Amendment, 1865-Post Civil War).
The greatest factor in the American Civil War would be the preservation of the Union as a single nation as opposed to different nations. When the Confederacy formed, Fort Sumter (in SC) was not evacuated by the Union troops, essentially indicating that the Confederate government was not recognized as a legitimate body (France nor Britain recognized them either). Following the shelling of Ft. Sumter, the southern states were considered to be "in revolt" and responded to accordingly.
The American Civil War was more the result of estrangement caused by sectionalism than motivated by slavery alone. Slavery was a factor, but to call it the cause of the American Civil War is a logical fallacy.
Sources:
http://www.civilwar.org/battlefields/fort-sumter.html?tab=facts
http://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/greeley.htm
http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/featured_documents/emancipation_proclamation/
PS: I've always liked the Union.
I agree, with a 0.5% chance of occurence it will add an aspect of true realism to the game. For while yes, they did maintain their firearms and misfires happen less than in the Napoleanic era, they did still happen. So I agree with a 0.5% chance, I would even go so high 1% but I would say no greater then that. For as stated before, we want it to add flavor to the combat, not change the taste completly. I will say as a side note though, their should definetly be a sound and/or animation for this so that people do not think that they are just lagging or that the game is glitched. But over all I am all for it!Think you mean a 0.05% chance lol, but I agree that it would add to the realism of the game!
Why would he mean 1 in 2000, would a regular soldier in the civil war even fire his rifle that many times?