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Messages - Garnith

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Nice! I love the interior spaces!

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General Discussion / Re: [Suggestion]Musket Misfires
« on: November 01, 2013, 07:55:05 pm »
Spoiler
OK, Basic Statistical Binomial probability evaluations:
 
n= number of times an experiment is repeated  (for us 200)
F= What will count as a successfull experiment (for us "success" is a misfire)
n= How many times we need/want a success to occur (for us 1)
                       n!     
F(x)=          x!(n-x)!   * (Fx)(x(n-x))


So how this works, when we say 1 out 200 times, that means that EACH time you fire your musket there is a chance that that shot will misfire equal to that that one guy will have a misfire when 200 men shoot all at the same time.

This next parrt is where people are getting confused:
Each experiment (Shot taken) is independant. Meaning that the success or failure of one trial(attempt) does not affect the outcome of the next  trial(Shot taken/attempt).  [

There is a way of making the probability cummulative, (Each failure makes success a little more likely) however we would not want that in this scenario.]

So saying that the chance that 1 of 200 shots will misfire, is actually a failry rare. you may only experience a misfire once every few battles even. So I do not belive this to be a bad idea.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If there are misfires, it needs to be COMPLETLY random. They should actually ask some historians  to estimate the chances of a misfire are and put that into the game. If it is something like every 20 shots than people can count and fire there 20th shot into the air and than reload again.
Also, we are not saying an incrimental value. (i.e every 20th shot will misfire.) The purpose of stateting that 1 of 200 accounts that the outcomes are placed at equally likely with each trial yielding a random occurance.

I think it should be around 1 in 50 personally. A line of 50 men all fire, 1 of them has a misfire.

I see where you are going with that, however Binomial Probability Distribution does not work EXACTLY that way, but you have the right idea. And I may even agree that 1 of 200 is a little to rare. But I would say no more than 1 of 150 (Mabe as low as 1 of 100...maybe)


(Please Pardon any misspellings and such, I only had 10 min to type this on a break at work)
[close]

Why did you even include a formula for binomial probability? What you said is right in that each shot is independent, just not sure why you would need to calculate the probability of x misfires in n trials.


I have to laugh looking at my post again...That's what I get for quickly writing a reply without looking over it again. I apologize, it was not needed, im just tired and unattentave at the moment.  ::) 

(I'll put it in a spoiler bracket so people dont have to look at it) 
Thanks for pointing that out.  ;)

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General Discussion / Re: [Suggestion]Musket Misfires
« on: November 01, 2013, 07:01:35 pm »
OK, Basic Statistical Binomial probability evaluations:

Edit: (Spoiler is not neccisary to read)
Spoiler
n= number of times an experiment is repeated  (for us 200)
F= What will count as a successfull experiment (for us "success" is a misfire)
n= How many times we need/want a success to occur (for us 1)
                       n!     
F(x)=          x!(n-x)!   * (Fx)(x(n-x))
[close]

So how this works, when we say 1 out 200 times, that means that EACH time you fire your musket there is a chance that that shot will misfire equal to that that one guy will have a misfire when 200 men shoot all at the same time.

The part where people are getting confused:
Each experiment (Shot taken) is independant. Meaning that the success or failure of one trial(attempt) does not affect the outcome of the next  trial(Shot taken/attempt).  [

There is a way of making the probability cummulative, (Each failure makes success a little more likely) however we would not want that in this scenario.]

So saying that the chance that 1 of 200 shots will misfire, is actually a failry rare. you may only experience a misfire once every few battles even. So I do not belive this to be a bad idea.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If there are misfires, it needs to be COMPLETLY random. They should actually ask some historians  to estimate the chances of a misfire are and put that into the game. If it is something like every 20 shots than people can count and fire there 20th shot into the air and than reload again.
Also, we are not saying an incrimental value. (i.e every 20th shot will misfire.) The purpose of stateting that 1 of 200 accounts that the outcomes are placed at equally likely with each trial yielding a random occurance.

I think it should be around 1 in 50 personally. A line of 50 men all fire, 1 of them has a misfire.

I see where you are going with that, however Binomial Probability Distribution does not work EXACTLY that way, but you have the right idea. And I may even agree that 1 of 200 is a little to rare. But I would say no more than 1 of 150 (Mabe as low as 1 of 100...maybe)


(Please Pardon any misspellings and such, I only had 10 min to type this on a break at work)

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Community / Re: Union Or Confederacy?
« on: October 08, 2013, 05:44:29 pm »
Slavery was the underlined cause of the war. Lost cause believers and revisionists will deny that but the maine cause the the riff between North and South was the slavery question.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Historical_revisionism
http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Historical_revisionism_(negationism).html

Not all historical revisionism is bad, Millander. I earnestly believe that we do need to look over the events and underlying causes of the American Civil War in light of new knowledge of the period and to do so in an unbiased manner.

It's incredibly important to note that the Civil War was not blatantly about slavery at the onset. I'm sure you realize that the Civil War essentially began with the Battle of Fort Sumter (1861), when the Confederate troops under Beauregard began to shell the fort. This leads one to suspect that the war was not begun for slavery, but as an independence movement.

It is a shame that so many deny the large estrangement that resulted over the slavery question, so large that it ruptured the nation into two separate states (or one, depending on your viewpoint). The North and South had different opinions on slavery, but this did not result in war independently of any other factors. Even Lincoln is quoted to have said "My paramount object in this struggle is to save the Union, and is not either to save or to destroy slavery. If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it, and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that" in a letter to Horace Greeley in 1862.

It is also important to note that the Emancipation Proclamation of 1863 did not end slavery in the Union, and would only apply to states "still in revolt". This meant that slavery in the border states was preserved in the border states until slavery was officially abolished (13th Amendment, 1865-Post Civil War).

The greatest factor in the American Civil War would be the preservation of the Union as a single nation as opposed to different nations. When the Confederacy formed, Fort Sumter (in SC) was not evacuated by the Union troops, essentially indicating that the Confederate government was not recognized as a legitimate body (France nor Britain recognized them either). Following the shelling of Ft. Sumter, the southern states were considered to be "in revolt" and responded to accordingly.

The American Civil War was more the result of estrangement caused by sectionalism than motivated by slavery alone. Slavery was a factor, but to call it the cause of the American Civil War is a logical fallacy.

Sources:
http://www.civilwar.org/battlefields/fort-sumter.html?tab=facts
http://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/greeley.htm
http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/featured_documents/emancipation_proclamation/

PS: I've always liked the Union. :)

Well said, I was going to write an explanation about the circumstances that underlined, evovled, rose, and fell during the war. However I feel that you have done a good job at describing the cirumstances.

On another note, the moment that I saw the title for this thread I knew imediatly that there would be pages of "The war was all about slavery!" folowed by "No it was not!" etc.*  However, while I feel that while this is an un-avoidable topic with anything covering this war, I feel that we have digresed from the origional intention of this thread, to tell which side you look foreward to play as the most. Obviously it is up to the admins in the end, yet I almost think that there should be a special thread for such debate. And I specifically use the term "debate" to note that I do not invision a thread full of "You racist slavers!" and "You union loving oppresors!" etc.

Yes, I know that is is near impossible to avoid the quickly writen retaliatory comments of many people. That wisthstanding, I mean for a thread to allow for such things as the post I have quoted, Well thought out, researched, and CITED arguements from both sides. So while the unnecissary comments will arise, I would hope that a format of more educated communication would dishearten the casual comentor from whimsical posts. (I realizes this is most likley an un-realistic expectaion, However it is one I would be proud to see this community acomplish)

With all said, I am currently finished (For now) with offering up my opinion on this matter, and shall leave the rest to a mature admin panel, community, and developers. I wish a good day to you all.  :)

Foot Notes:
*(The war initiated over states rights to secede)

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Community / Re: Introduce Yourself!
« on: October 08, 2013, 04:21:30 pm »
I am Garnith, I am an old vetran from the beggining of MM (Although I had a different name way back then). About 3 months before NW released I joined the 29th and have been there since as one of the several Melee experts in the 29th.
Can't wait till BCoF is released!  8)

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General Discussion / Re: [Suggestion]Musket Misfires
« on: October 06, 2013, 07:34:29 am »
I agree, with a 0.5% chance of occurence it will add an aspect of true realism to the game. For while yes, they did maintain their firearms and misfires happen less than in the Napoleanic era, they did still happen. So I agree with a 0.5% chance, I would even go so high 1% but I would say no greater then that. For as stated before, we want it to add flavor to the combat, not change the taste completly. I will say as a side note though, their should definetly be a sound and/or animation for this so that people do not think that they are just lagging or that the game is glitched. But over all I am all for it!
Think you mean a 0.05% chance lol, but I agree that it would add to the realism of the game! ;D



Why would he mean 1 in 2000, would a regular soldier in the civil war even fire his rifle that many times?


Ya, I ment a 0.5% chance. ("1 in 200" = 0.5%)

Not 0.05% (1 in 2,000 = 0.05%) that would be too rare.

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I love how we all eventually de-rail the conversation...  ;)
And Kraut, I have no idea what that means, but I approve.

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General Discussion / Re: [Suggestion]Musket Misfires
« on: October 03, 2013, 09:42:00 pm »
I agree, with a 0.5% chance of occurence it will add an aspect of true realism to the game. For while yes, they did maintain their firearms and misfires happen less than in the Napoleanic era, they did still happen. So I agree with a 0.5% chance, I would even go so high 1% but I would say no greater then that. For as stated before, we want it to add flavor to the combat, not change the taste completly. I will say as a side note though, their should definetly be a sound and/or animation for this so that people do not think that they are just lagging or that the game is glitched. But over all I am all for it!

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