The General Political Thread

[Rutger Müller]

"Do not make three, but five children, because you are the future of Europe," Erdogan said Friday in Eskisehir in the West of Turkey."

Still laughing at Brexit?

he said that because he wants to go to more birthday parties

[Edwin]

Heh. Duuring may actually become a minority after all kek

So much for righty hysteria

[Cazasar]

The problem is that you cant talk about the dangers that come with these uneven birthrates because you are imedeately shoven into this whole white genocide shit.

[StevenChilton]

There's not going to be a 'white genocide' that's just silly. However there will be very large Muslim minorities in various Western countries, in some places approaching 20-25% of the population in the not too distant future. This is obviously going to cause very severe political and social problems and anyone who denies that is retarded.

[Olafson]

LARGE minorities what? 


Also, his idea is stupid. I have the feeling that the Turkish people (Those that are loyal to King Erdogan) that live in Germany already have 5 or more children... Those that integrated well, do not.

[StevenChilton]

LARGE minorities what? 

20-25% of the population is still a minority, but large enough to exert very significant political power. Future politicians will have to pander to these groups to win votes, even more so in PR systems, and the end result will be quite ugly. If Europe can't integrate them when they're at 10% or less of the population they have no chance when they make up 20% or more.

[Hadhod]

The boldest predictions give 8 % for 2020 10% for 2050 and 25 % for 2100. That is without taking into account that birth rate of Muslims declines once they start living in Europe for 1 or 2 generations. (And this is all Muslims not just turks )

[Edwin]

[citation needed]

[Cazasar]

[citation needed]

[Hadhod]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Europe

Though I misquoted it. The 8% were for 2030 and not 2020

[fruitocino]

That still is a relevant amount of people, and like StevenChilton said politicians will have to adjust their campaign accordingly, or new parties will be added to the spectrum.

[StevenChilton]

This is where I got my information from: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jan/28/muslim-population-country-projection-2030

That '8% by 2030' figure is for the whole of the European continent and therefore highly misleading. European Muslims are highly concentrated in Western European countries-for instance in France the Muslim population was already around 8% in 2011. The Pew Forum data was also compiled before Merkel's 2015 'Open Door' policy. I think it's very fair to say the Muslim population of many European countries will approach 20% or more within our lifetimes supposing current trends continue.

Keep in mind 17% of the current US population is Hispanic and look how much political power they wield as a group in an electoral system that operates FPTP.

[Duuring]

Immigrant group birthrates go down to the native level usually after only one generation. In the Netherlands, the 2013 birth rate was just 1/3 of that of 2003. It's a little more then natives, but quickly diminishing. We had like 16.000 refugees in 2016, not all of whom are muslim, not all of whom will be permitted to stay, and not all of whom will stay in the Netherlands at all. And then I don't even include secularization.

But hey, whatever.

[StevenChilton]

This is mostly being driven by migration levels rather than fertility rates. We'll see in time whether the birthrates decline to native levels-I doubt they will because they are generally among the least integrated migrants groups, and Pew seem to think they won't decline that dramatically, but who knows. I think they will go down a bit but not to contemporary native European levels.

As for 'they'll come round and secularise like the rest of us' even arch-liberals in the UK are starting to give up on that idea: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/trevor-phillips-muslims_uk_570b5d63e4b0ae22c1dff5aa

I think the scenario I've outlined is a fairly reasonable and rational assumption given the data. I'm not saying 'European Caliphate is imminent!!!111!!1' or 'muh white genocide'. All I'm pointing out is that many Western European countries will in the long-term have large Muslim minorities in significant enough numbers to exert real political influence and many of us will not like the kind of consequences stemming from that.

[Olafson]

Yeah so? If a large part of the population is Muslim they have a right to exert political influence. Even if it is a small part of the population they have a right to do that. If you do not like it, do not vote for their Parties. That is how democrazy works...