Author Topic: The General Political Thread  (Read 399299 times)

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Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4785 on: January 15, 2019, 09:25:00 am »
I'm curious what happens to those numbers after no-deal Brexit.

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4786 on: January 15, 2019, 10:40:20 am »
I'm curious what happens to those numbers after no-deal Brexit.

It would push both sides into a recession, I'd imagine.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4787 on: January 15, 2019, 11:35:01 am »
I'd be amused if it wouldn't hurt the Dutch economy so much. That's kinda my whole feel with this thing. It would be fun to watch a country wreck itself, it's just that it will drag us down with it.

Is there any reliable economic model that predicts the British economy would grow after brexit?

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4788 on: January 15, 2019, 12:44:12 pm »
I'd be amused if it wouldn't hurt the Dutch economy so much. That's kinda my whole feel with this thing. It would be fun to watch a country wreck itself, it's just that it will drag us down with it.

Is there any reliable economic model that predicts the British economy would grow after brexit?

There's a few people who think it will, mainly Patrick Minford's grouping: https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/who-we-are/
Minford is quite famous for being an early backer of Thatcherism when most economists were strongly against it. He's often in the minority, and has often been proven right.

Then there's people like Ashoka Mody or Paul Krugman who think the effect will be very limited, with potentially some short term disruption thrown in. I tend to side more with Mody's analysis simply because his track record on EU economics has been pretty good. I think Brexit means a slight drag on UK GDP growth in the short term, almost certainly some disruption in Q2/Q3 of 2019 and that'll be about it. Predictions of -10% or whatever are just silly.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4789 on: January 15, 2019, 03:30:25 pm »
We'll see.

Edit: Yikes
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 04:17:07 pm by Duuring »

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4790 on: January 15, 2019, 06:09:53 pm »
The vote isn't for another three hours Duuring, that's a Sky News prediction.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4791 on: January 15, 2019, 06:33:27 pm »
I know.

Offline Sgt.Winters

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4792 on: January 15, 2019, 06:50:08 pm »
Joke, I only own beautiful guns.
AR-15 is sexy, but then again I think the G36 and C7 are beauties as well.  :P

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4793 on: January 15, 2019, 09:07:41 pm »
May's government just spend their entire mandate on getting a deal that was just defeated 202-430ish and she actually wants to stay. Really changing the unwritten rules here.

Offline Sgt.Winters

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4794 on: January 15, 2019, 09:21:14 pm »
So is Corbyn going to make a move?

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4795 on: January 15, 2019, 09:24:29 pm »
He filed a motion of no confidence, which will be debated and voted upon tomorrow. Then we'll see.

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4796 on: January 15, 2019, 09:31:59 pm »
So is Corbyn going to make a move?

He'll call a no confidence vote, May will win it (already has confirmed DUP backing) and that'll enable her to stay on for a bit longer. Corbyn is a bit thick and this is the kind of dumb move he'd make.

Offline DaMonkey

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4797 on: January 15, 2019, 09:35:10 pm »
Joke, I only own beautiful guns.

I guess Germans only like weird-looking fish guns that melt after extended use.
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Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4798 on: January 15, 2019, 09:39:03 pm »
Joke, I only own beautiful guns.

I guess Germans only like weird-looking fish guns that melt after extended use.

Wasn't overheating one of the issues with the AR-15?

Offline Ted

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4799 on: January 15, 2019, 09:54:05 pm »