Canadian Federal Election Thread - October 2019

[Theodin]

The Canadian Federal Election will take place on October 21, 2019.

How Canadian Elections Work

All 338 seats in the Canadian House of Commons will be decided on using the first past the post voting system.

Currently, the Liberal Party of Canada holds a 14 seat majority, with 184 seats, while the official opposition is the Conservative Party of Canada, holding 95. The leader of the party with the majority of the seats (or the most seats, in case of a minority.. but sometimes that gets complicated) is invited to form a government by Queen Elizabeth through her proxy, the Governor-General. The leader of the LPC is Justin Trudeau.

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Political background

In the 2015 election Trudeau won a majority after more than a decade of CPC rule under Stephen Harper. The LPC got shredded in the 2011 federal election, winning the lowest amount of seats in its 152-year history, and Trudeau's victory, in an election based significantly on change, signaled a drastic comeback.

The CPC, in contrast, is only 15 years old and is an amalgamation of the Reform Party of Canada and the Progressive Conservatives. Its current leader, only the second in its history, is Andrew Scheer.

The third party is the New Democratic Party of Canada, a party born out of labor and democratic-socialist movements in the early 60's, lead by rookie leader and MP Jagmeet Singh.

Other parties include the Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party, the Green Party of Canada (who hold three seats), and the People's Party of Canada (a populist party with one MP).

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Positioning of Canadian Political Parties

The NDP is the furthest left on the political spectrum and can be accurately compared to the Sanders-AOC wing of the Democratic party.

The Liberals are traditionally centre-left (Clinton-Obama era Democrat), but the Trudeau era has moved the LPC more to the left.

The Bloc Quebecois is a separatist party that only fields candidates in Quebec. They are traditionally left of centre but focus mainly on Quebecois issues.

The Green Party of Canada is a party focused on environmental issues. They hold an odd mix of fiscal centrism and left-wing environmentalism.

The Conservatives are centre-right, and are predominantly fiscally conservative/socially libertarian. There is a significant social conservative wing in the CPC, but the party holds mostly libertarian positions on these issues. They are loosely comparable to Romney era Republicanism.

The People's Party of Canada is a populist party run by a former Conservative MP. They hold policies comparable to Trump era Republicanism.
 

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The Trudeau Government

In modern Canadian politics, it is rare for the government to fall after one term. There are no term limits on Canadian prime ministers; as such, except for the turmoil-filled 2000-06 Paul Martin administration, no Prime Minister has lost after his first term since Joe Clark in 1979. However, polls continue to show a too close to call race between the LPC and CPC.

The Trudeau administration has been marred by a lack of experienced political staff, failure to deliver on key promises like electoral reform, multiple scandals involving ministers and MP's, the imposition of an unpopular carbon tax, and a relative failure to deliver on military and foreign policy aims. Trudeau's personal brand has also taken a huge hit, as he has been found guilty of violating the Conflict of Interest act by the independent ethics commissioner. Not only is he the first PM in Canadian history to be found guilty of violating this act, but he was found guilty twice - the first time for accepting a vacation and gifts from the Aga Khan, and the second time for his involvement in the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

The latter scandal has been particularly damning for Trudeau, as two "star" cabinet members, including the first Aboriginal female Attorney General in Canadian history, resigned from cabinet in protest over his handling of the affair.

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My Prediction

Andrew Scheer and the CPC are running on.. not very much. They have put out policy on the environment, healthcare, and other issues that is very boilerplate and not very newsworthy, but that's the right idea - Trudeau has lost a lot of support recently, and the CPC strategy seems to be to present Scheer as mistake-free compared to the gaffe-prone Trudeau. Polls show them dominating in the popular vote but tied in seat count - so I would put serious money on a Liberal minority next election. Unless Scheer really screws the pooch during the election period, my prediction for the next Canadian parliament is:
LPC: 153
CPC: 144
NDP: 21
GPC: 6
BQ: 13
PPC: 1
These results would create a crazy environment, and possibly a GPC-LPC coalition, which would be scary lol

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windflower made me do this

[JollyCanadian]

I haven't really started to look into the parties for this elections but one thing I'm certain of is that it's gonna be weird.

No party is really "good" as far as I am aware of.

I like the thread post, thanks for starting it theo. I'll be posting here again.

[Conway]

Liberal minority is the most likely outcome.

If Doug Ford hadn't turned the province of Ontario against him than CPC minority would be a guarantee.
Unfortunately Doug's kinda fucked up trust in the conservative movement and so the LPC is gonna win Ontario.

Most interesting part about this election is that The Greens are polling almost as high as the NDP and are going to win multiple seats, which may see them as candidates in a Confidence and Supply arrangement with the Libs. The Greens across Canada have been doing very well over the past few provincial elections (PEI/NB), interested to see how they'll continue to progress in their big boy shoes.

[George385]

Canadian nationals overseas are apparently allowed to vote this coming election.

I don't think its going to have the impact Trudeau wants it to have, most Canadians I have met here in Australia are very much anti-Trudeau. Something about letting terrorists into Canada doesn't sit well with me.

[Sgt.Winters]

Ngl Justin’s brownface was pretty well done

[Theodin]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/beta.cp24.com/news/2019/9/19/1_4600257.html
Justin Trudeau has done brownface three separate times 😳 incredibly damaging for his brand - a champion of progressive values with this history is an incredible show of hypocrisy.

Interestingly, the NDP are coming out on top of this story - which the CPC is celebrating. Jagmeet has been ineffective as a leader, but he’s been strong on this since the start of the story. Any pulled votes helps the CPC massively. Can’t wait for the leaders debates after this September surprise

[yecgga]

hello, I want to move canada, is there anyone willing to marry with me? so I can move canada

[JollyCanadian]

Aparently he doesn't remeber how many times he did it. Does that mean he did it more than a few times or is he just giving his vauge answers like he usually does.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-trudeau-brownface-election-2019-1.5289421

Personally I'm not excited to listen to the debate because holy does trudeau not know how to talk, the man studders like crazy

[Conway]

Hahahaha Liberal seat projections dropped by 20 overnight.

Meanwhile the NDP is looking like its dropping back to 4th Party status behind the bloc. Hard to think 4 years ago they were initially projected to form a government.

Ironic that the whole Liberal strategy is to attack Scheer for being a bigot while their leader has worn blackface.

[Cytiuz]

I don't speak Canadian cant someone elaborate on what there saying? In American terms.

[Windflower]

I like Maxime, I think he would've been better for CPC as he's a little more charismatic then Scheer who has a really punch-able face.. too bad his party isn't going to get a seat :\

[Theodin]

I like Maxime, I think he would've been better for CPC as he's a little more charismatic then Scheer who has a really punch-able face.. too bad his party isn't going to get a seat :\

Mad Max isn’t gonna lose Beauce. I’d be very surprised if he lost his seat

[Hawkince]

bruh moment

[Windflower]

bruh moment

the whole 2019 election is a bruh moment yeah

[Theodin]

Seat projections are neck and neck rn... hard to believe Trudeau lost a majority in just one term
A Q and A about scenarios that are rather likely: https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/an-expert-guide-to-minority-scenarios/