World Politics Thread - Round 2

[StevenChilton]

Actually it's the other way round...we don't have to buy your stuff. It's usually businesses that are beholden to the customer rather than vice versa. There's a reason the German car industry refers to the UK as 'treasure island'. Obviously what should, and probably will, happen is that the UK will stay in the Single Market via EFTA.

Yeah, but the exports to the UK only make about 6-8% (Varying data) of exports from the EU. (Not including britain)
Without a trade deal, I think the UK would loose more than the EU. It probably is going to end with one though, the UK is very close, part of NATO, had good relationship with the EU for many years, etc.
I guess you can argue about this one forever, trade obviously needs both sides, and both sides profit from it.

Doesn't matter about UK destined exports as a % of total EU trade, it's meaningless in this context. As Charles de Gaulle made clear 'Europe is France and Germany, the rest are just trimmings'. The UK is Germany's third biggest export market, and France's fourth biggest (going by 2015 figures). Both have a very large trade surplus with the UK. Do you think France and Germany would sacrifice their interests for Europe as a whole? That'd be a first. The history of the EU has been one of Franco-German greed at everybody else's expense.

[DanielG453]

Doesn't matter about UK destined exports as a % of total EU trade, it's meaningless in this context. As Charles de Gaulle made clear 'Europe is France and Germany, the rest are just trimmings'. The UK is Germany's third biggest export market, and France's fourth biggest (going by 2015 figures). Both have a very large trade surplus with the UK. Do you think France and Germany would sacrifice their interests for Europe as a whole? That'd be a first. The history of the EU has been one of Franco-German greed at everybody else's expense.

Yes, the European project is one of Franco-German greed, it has done nothing but damage other member states competitiveness on an international level by limiting trade and cooperation. Not to mention the dreadful Schengen policy that allows terrorists to travel freely and commit atrocities like the Paris attacks. Unfortunately, it just keeps getting worse with the truly absurd common fisheries policy that has destroyed the livelihoods of many British trawler Captains. Thank God we British are leaving the sinking ship that is the EU.

[AP0CALYPS3]

[UniversitasMetal]

 Make Donald Drumpf again!

[Norwegian13]

Added a poll about the French conservative elections

[AP0CALYPS3]

I think its pretty clear Fillon wins this.

[Norwegian13]

Well Juncker just made a fool of himself

[BabyJesus]

http://710wor.iheart.com/onair/mark-simone-52176/60-minutes-goes-to-sweden-to-14515160/#ixzz4Qk1BKYtA

[Furrnox]

Well Juncker just made a fool of himself

Just? That was over a year ago.

[Duuring]

Juncker is the most socially skilled unsocial person ever.

[StevenChilton]

Actually I think he's just drunk

[StevenChilton]

Fillon, according to exit polls, is on around 60% in the second round of the French Republican primary. Him vs Le Pen will be interesting-Fillon has promised a massive austerity programme, eliminating half a million public sector jobs, scrapping 35-hour working week, etc. How many French socialists will want to vote for that? Le Pen on the other hand is firmly to the left when it comes to economic issues.

Fillon winning is good news for her and possibly also Emmanuel Macron.

[Duuring]

Fillon, according to exit polls, is on around 60% in the second round of the French Republican primary. Him vs Le Pen will be interesting-Fillon has promised a massive austerity programme, eliminating half a million public sector jobs, scrapping 35-hour working week, etc. How many French socialists will want to vote for that? Le Pen on the other hand is firmly to the left when it comes to economic issues.

Fillon winning is good news for her and possibly also Emmanuel Macron.

Agreed. Though polls show Fillon at a distinct advance, I won't be surprised if we see another 'I dunno, better vote populist, what's the worse that can happen?'.

[Karth]

Turkey now has 2+ million(actual number is closer to 4 million) Syrian refugees. Why is US so reluctant to accept a small fraction of that given that its as large as entire fucking Europe.

We have higher security clearance protocols that we give to refugees than other countries.  And we already take in a ton of other refugees from other countries such as Myanmar, Bhutan, Africa, etc..
Not to mention until they change how where we place refugees, and provide them with actual care I am against taking in ANY refugees.  Its absurd how mistreated the refugees we do have are taken care of.  I personally have seen the Bhutanese refugees (who escaped persecution in their own country), be put in the ghettos of Philly, given one year of rent and some allowance and thats it.  No education, no guides, no nothing- volunteers were their only source of motivation, otherwise they would literally get involved in the drug trade and suicide rates spiked drastically after two years of them there. 

So yea, unless the refugees we take in are given proper attention, there is no point in them coming here (I mean this sincerely, as I witnessed this firsthand (apart of an assignment), and the refugees I interacted to wanted to go back to their internment camps back home).  And we have enough homeless and underprivileged individuals as it is than any other country to deal with. 

In regards to the French election, my money is on Fillon winning, and I could see the right wing take over/ seems to be a trend nowadays unfortunately.

[StevenChilton]

I think Le Pen's chances have certainly improved-her main threat was Juppe and he's lost the nomination, so she'll face either Hollande or more likely Fillon in the final round (it's generally considered that Macron is placing himself to run next time and this isn't a wholly serious bid). Hollande has said he'll run again which is brave, and I doubt anyone serious will challenge him for the nomination since this will be a very difficult election for the French left and nobody wants to wreck their career by getting humiliated. Manuel Valls and others are probably going to sit it out and wait till next time.

Neither Hollande or Fillon are well placed to rally a broad coalition against Le Pen which is what they have to do to win. Few leftists will actively vote for Fillon even to stop FN, and it's the same thing reversed for Hollande. Most will probably just stay at home, although I could see Fillon's core support plumping for Le Pen if Hollande somehow ends up as her run-off opponent.

Basically I think she'll win narrowly against Hollande, but lose narrowly against Fillon. Whatever happens France is in for a lot of disruption whichever of those three wins.