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Messages - Xethos

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Okay, week 3 is complete. I see one already scheduled, but week 4 matches are due Sunday, March 26th

This week's matches:
Gay Baker Boys vs. The Cream Team
Les Blues vs. Seal Team Sex

League 1
League 2

Addendum: We are trialing a league transfer procedure this season due to concerns expressed a few weeks ago about the possibility of slumping League 1 players losing out on the ability to play. The goal of this process is accommodate players who were drafted as League 1 players, but, at least at this point in time, are not functioning as such without compromising the integrity of League 2's level of competition.

Each captain may, on a single occasion between the completion of his team's third match and the trading deadline, designate his lowest performing League 1 player as a League 2 player, and replace him with one of the top two performing League 2 players. The demoted player will not be permitted to play in League 1 matches until the playoffs.

For performance, we're using Waste's point system. It has the advantages of being simple and objective, and does a reasonable job of measuring the most basic elements of performance and activity. So, what this means is the League 1 player with the fewest points after a match on Waste's spreadsheet may be demoted. This includes the captain. The demoted player must be replaced, and to preserve the integrity of League 2, only the top two in points on the League 2 spreadsheet are eligible to be promoted.

Per rule 27.b, the promoted player will no long be able to compete in L2 matches. An addendum will be added to rule 27.a (when Risk is able); the demoted player, although being an L2 player, will not be permitted to serve as a substitute in L1 matches until the playoffs. This asterisk will follow a player if he is traded. This is here to attempt to ensure players are actually being sent down because, for whatever reason, they aren't functioning in L1 rather than simply being added to the L2 roster.

Each team can only make a single transfer, and are under no obligation to make one. Once the change is committed, it cannot be undone for the rest of the regular season. The window opens after a team's 3rd game, so it is open for GVT and Seal Team Sex right now and will open for all other teams next week. It closes at the same time as the trading deadline, when all roster movements are frozen.

Any official transfers that happen will be posted here on the forums.

Risk and I have considered the possible abuses of the rule and how to stop them, but surely nobody is going to take a three week vacation or mass teamkill just to have a demotion to L2 when the prize pool is so much smaller. So instead of being even more unnecessarily verbose, anyone who figures out how to manipulate the rule and decides to screw up League 2 will be congratulated for their creativity and considered in violation of rule 29 or 30 (depending on whether we think you're cheating or trolling). Any questions can be directed to me until Risk returns.

Week 2 is complete. Don't worry about the missing match in the bracket, it will be made up to date as soon as the man with the Challonge account is available to do so.  Week 3 matches are due Sunday, March 19th

This week's matches:
Seal Team Sex vs. Gay Baker Boys
The Cream Team vs GVT

League 1
League 2

Why do you all think Wastee and Mikey were given special treatment? It's not like other trades were blocked. Literally any trade could have went through that night

This is pretty much the case.

Can there just be an extra of trading open to cpts to make it fair?
Or is the trade going to stand without anyone address the conflict of interests here.

This would have been a lot less complicated if the admin of the league wasnt directly in the trade, but since he was either people are gonna have to just suck it up, you cancel the trade, or you give everyone else an extra day.

If anybody was actually interested in trades, the existing offer stands. Everybody had the extra hour or so, whether they knew it or not (which I consider to be the failure; I think we were more clear about the expectations with the trading deadline last season). The only reason we would have actually blocked the trade is specifically because Risk was in it, and even then only because it would put me on jannie duty on the thread for a few days.

Sure, Jazz, why not? If any other trade was demonstrably in the final stages of completion, but was aborted specifically because 12am eastern passed, send us proof. If it fulfills all other trade rules and we can be reasonably confident we're not being trolled, we'll consider it.

From the commissioner's post-sunset affiliate:

Risk and Yoshie from bromen has been traded in exchange for Runepkyz and Theodin from GVT. Trade is official.

The trading deadline has now passed and no further trades will be accepted.

No pyramids, thanks

CHC&F L2 team beat Vindica (Bromen L2 affiliate) 2-1.




my boy xethos game is so fucked he hasn't seem animations since 2019

Sometimes, I open up OpenBRF and look at the animation files just to remember what they look like.

CHC&F L2 team beat the Jedi Academy 2-0 (10-4, 10-4)


The Mess Hall / Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« on: October 12, 2021, 02:59:00 pm »
I think if you're going to try to make a value added stat as opposed to another rate stat, you have to figure out the value of a kill, a death and a teamkill. WAR in baseball sort of works because SABR has sat down and figured out how many runs an offensive has to score and how many runs a defense has to . . . not allow? . . . to win a game in a given run environment. SABR figures that, in a 5 run per game environment, a batter needs to produce an extra 10 runs to be worth an extra win. I don't think that's the case for the draft leagues since, unlike baseball, we know exactly how many "points" we need to score to win a single round. In the case of the current league, is 6. I don't think we can easily, with any certainty, accurately assess preventing enemy kills, primarily because we don't track rounds in which a player played and did not die. Even with kills, we can't really do what baseball WAR does, because it ultimately constructs a run expectancy for a plate appearance and assigns every possible outcome a run value. We can't really count opportunities, so we have to basically overvalue opportunities taken to compensate for undervaluing opportunities missed.

I would guess that to set the replacement level, you would have to decide how set a stat line of the supposed replacement player, compare the value of kills and deaths to that replacement player. Again, assessing opportunity is the problem. The closest I can come up with is deaths. That is, set the replacement player's deaths to the player you're evaluating and multiply that by the replacement K/D to get the replacement kills, and you can get teamkills the same way. It's not ideal mainly because it doesn't sufficiently reward players who don't die. It may also be that just guessing for rounds played would be sufficient, especially if nobody is interested outside of the top 15 or 20 players anyway, because the only way top players miss rounds is if they miss the match entirely or their internet cuts out.

I also have absolutely no idea how first bloods factor in, partly because they don't play nicely in the formulas I was fiddling with, and in part because, as far as I know, we don't actually know exactly how valuable a first blood is.

A couple of leagues ago, when I had log access, I was tempted to try to calculate situational win probability. In a 5v3, how often does the team with 5 alive win, and how often the team with 3? If we had win rates for all the permutations of a draft league match, we could calculate kill win probably added. It would just be a matter of giving credit for the change in win expectancy to whoever got the kill and subtracting the same from the player who died. Of course, it would substitute for WAA more than WAR, and I have no idea without trying whether it'd be easier to generate a replacement player for that sort of thing. You'd also get a nice statistical phenomenon where the league would have a negative WPA, because it's possible to cost your own team win expectancy without any player on the other team earning any.

I ended up not doing it because it would have required more set up work than I was prepared to do. Most of the counting could be automated pretty easily, but it still would require extensive log edits to get something to feed into whatever is doing the counting. The resulting stat would still have its problems as well. It would, for example, likely punish a player for after holding multiple enemies while his team came back from an early deficit and then dying compared to a player who, in the same scenario, died instantly. The benefit is that it would reward players who got kills in close rounds and situations more than players who stat padded at the ends of rounds.

Regiments / Re: 84th Regiment of Foot (Royal Highland Emigrants) NA
« on: September 17, 2021, 03:20:01 am »
We doing this again? Xethos is quick man better watch out

The Mess Hall / Re: NA All-Time Duelists/Groupfighters*UPDATE*
« on: August 16, 2021, 07:27:09 am »
2015 players were better, because when they had a 50 page argument, they didn't need to break the fucking forums

The Mess Hall / Re: NA All-Time Duelists/Groupfighters*UPDATE*
« on: August 13, 2021, 01:21:12 pm »
isn't this list finished now? the only one not filled is cavalry but i don't think there a single cav player left in nw


Events: NA / Re: NickyJ's Corrupt Friday Linebattle
« on: August 06, 2021, 01:00:07 am »
Oprichnik cav. If full, arty.

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