Author Topic: The General Political Thread  (Read 529631 times)

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Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4485 on: November 11, 2018, 11:50:13 pm »
Not a zero-sum game.

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4486 on: November 11, 2018, 11:57:51 pm »
It may have done so for selfish reasons but the US has still subsidised European defence for decades. Nothing you've said changes that Riddlez. The difference between now and the Cold War is that a) the US is not as rich as it once was, and b) Moscow is no longer much of a threat (or at least not a military one).

If Macron wants an EU army he should at least be honest about why rather than spreading lies/propaganda. The US is not a military threat to Europe as Macron claims (there's French gratitude for you, and what an insult saying that in the run up to Armistice Day) and Russia certainly isn't either. Russia is actually a relatively weak country with terrible demographics and a struggling economy. Macron wants an EU army because he's an EU nationalist and if he gets his way I think it could backfire worse than the Euro.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4487 on: November 12, 2018, 01:35:40 pm »
Russia isn't a threat because of the size of their military power, but because of their willingness to use it.

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Macron wants an EU army because he's an EU nationalist

Or maybe because France's quite ridiculously large army would be one of the most powerful parts of such an army, much larger than the role it plays within NATO. I dunno.

Offline Riddlez

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4488 on: November 12, 2018, 02:17:07 pm »
We have an ocean to keep the Russians away, it was literally for you all so Stalin didn't pubstomp you all because he got bored.

The U.S. do not look at their national security in such constrained terms.
The United States relies primarily on their territorial integrity, guarded by the US Navy, not the Army.
Canada and Mexico will never be a serious threat for them so they look at the pacific and the atlantic for their territorial integrity. Considering a large-scale conventional threat, the US would not be able to concentrate enough forces to secure both oceans with one navy. This is where Europe comes into play:

The U.S. cannot influence China enough to keep that side of their country safe, but it is also not enough of a problem to be a serious threat as of now. They have allies in Europe, so thats where they focus is.
By stationing troops in Europe, the U.S. can prevent a large-scale naval threat from ever happening (launched from the EU continent).

So no, tits' not subsidizing other countries. That is not how countries work and CERTAINLY not how the U.S. works.


Also considering what I said, WWII can be explained: an eastern threat: japan, and a european threa: Germany.

Thats why they invaded in normandy. not because they loved 'the europhiles'  but because they had to.
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Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4489 on: November 12, 2018, 04:02:15 pm »
Russia isn't a threat because of the size of their military power, but because of their willingness to use it.

Except they've not actually been that willing to use military force and have only done so when they ran out of other options.

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Macron wants an EU army because he's an EU nationalist

Or maybe because France's quite ridiculously large army would be one of the most powerful parts of such an army, much larger than the role it plays within NATO. I dunno.

Yeah, when you've got a big shiny army the obvious thing to do is hand over control so that countries like Italy and Greece now have a veto over where it gets deployed. You should hope I'm right about Russia not being a military threat, because if I'm wrong then Putin will get friendly EU countries (of which there are a large number) to veto that army from moving a single inch.

Offline Riddlez

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4490 on: November 12, 2018, 09:02:06 pm »
Russia isn't going anywhere with their army anytime soon. Their main focus now is operating in the information domain. They're not strong enough to make a move on Poland, they will definitely not anger NATO with Finland or the Baltics and they're not gonna do much else except fuck around in cyber.

And besides.... Russia can't afford a war.
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Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4491 on: November 12, 2018, 09:11:23 pm »
And besides.... Russia can't afford a war.

Ukraine, Syria, Caucasus, Africa.

Offline Riddlez

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4492 on: November 12, 2018, 10:41:25 pm »
And besides.... Russia can't afford a war.

Ukraine, Syria, Caucasus, Africa.

That's not war... those are small conflicts... I meant a real war. Steel on steel kind of war.
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Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4493 on: November 13, 2018, 06:43:22 am »
And besides.... Russia can't afford a war.

Yep, and certainly not one against their biggest export market!

Russia can't possibly win a conventional war with the geopolitical chessboard looking as it currently is. That's why they're changing the board via non-military means. An EU army that undermines NATO would be yet another big win for Russian foreign policy.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2018, 12:43:21 pm by StevenChilton »

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4494 on: November 13, 2018, 10:06:33 am »
And besides.... Russia can't afford a war.

Ukraine, Syria, Caucasus, Africa.

That's not war... those are small conflicts... I meant a real war. Steel on steel kind of war.

If you change the definition of war to something that's not happening, yeah, they're not fighting wars. Nor is any state.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2018, 10:09:56 am by Duuring »

Offline Lone

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4495 on: November 13, 2018, 11:14:18 am »
Change my mind:
Communism is bs.
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Offline Riddlez

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4496 on: November 13, 2018, 12:10:22 pm »
If you change the definition of war to something that's not happening, yeah, they're not fighting wars. Nor is any state.

Okay i should have said warfighting. Doesn't change the point.
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Offline Svensson

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4497 on: November 13, 2018, 02:27:40 pm »
Change my mind:
Communism is bs.
urrr dat wasnt real communism!111!111ojenoenenoe1!11 :o :o :o :o

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4498 on: November 13, 2018, 05:06:13 pm »
If you change the definition of war to something that's not happening, yeah, they're not fighting wars. Nor is any state.

Okay i should have said warfighting. Doesn't change the point.

What is the point? That Russia will never go to war with anyone even though they have and continue to wage war on their neighbours and that of their allies?
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they will definitely not anger NATO with Finland or the Baltics

In a Wargame by the RAND Corporation,  Russia is at the gates of Talin and Riga within 60 hours, even with the assumption that the US managed to deploy a Stryker batallion in a possible built-up scenario. Which I, to be honest, do not find too likely considering how long it took for NATO to even deploy the four batallions in the Baltic states they have there now. Russia could defeat and occupy two NATO countries and then offer to engage in negotiations long before NATO even manages to deploy a counter-force.

The assumption you make here is that NATO would OF COURSE follow up on article 5 and wage war against Russia. But that's, sadly, quite the assumption, especially with the 60-hour-Fait-compli-scenario. That's a political decision, and it's quite likely especially countries more to the west of Europe would not support a military response and would be willing to consider negotiations.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2018, 05:07:51 pm by Duuring »

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4499 on: November 13, 2018, 06:59:46 pm »
Hmmm, in order to get to Tallinn and/or Riga the Russians would have to kill a fair few Americans given the number of US military bases in the Baltics. Can anyone imagine a scenario whereby a US President doesn't unleash 'fire and fury' but meekly goes to the negotiating table instead? And if NATO doesn't respond as per Article 50 then the consequences would be catastrophic. Who would trust America ever again?

I can't recall the exact quote but Henry Kissinger said that American hegemony is based upon its network of alliances. It's all built upon trust, and it'd all come crashing down if Article 5 isn't followed through.

So yes, whilst the Russians would steamroller over the Baltics relatively quickly a NATO response is close to certain. The US has too much to lose for it not to respond.