The General Political Thread

[William]

A war between the United States and the People's Republic of China isn't likely to escalate beyond some minor, localized skirmishes over North Korea; the United States loses out on those cheap, slave labor consumer goods and the Chinese lose massive amounts of cash for those goods. The PRC would probably pretty excitedly work out a deal where they get to change the North Korean regime to something of their liking that is less volatile.

It definitely seems to work that way but China also seems to be contempt with just sitting on the sideline. They seem to be extremely patient and only playing their hand when absolutely forced to. I'd imagine they don't want to risk conflict with the U.S. seeing as how they're still expanding their pacific holdings and exerting influence on their neighbors but as you all have pointed out, that N.K. buffer is something China will not let dissolve. 

[DaMonkey]

I think losing the North Korean buffer isn't something they are necessarily completely stalwart on anymore. With Russia no longer as likely an ally (keep in mind that these days, both Russia and the PRC have troop buildup on their shared border), defending the Korean peninsula no longer possesses the prior ability of a natural bottleneck. Additionally, the PRC may wish to give a little ground to the United States for some extra leniency dealing with the land disputes with India.

[Dazzer]

I think losing the North Korean buffer isn't something they are necessarily completely stalwart on anymore. With Russia no longer as likely an ally (keep in mind that these days, both Russia and the PRC have troop buildup on their shared border), defending the Korean peninsula no longer possesses the prior ability of a natural bottleneck. Additionally, the PRC may wish to give a little ground to the United States for some extra leniency dealing with the land disputes with India.

congrats on your title

[Theodin]

If i'm China, I'm trading North Korea for an ease of Trump's rhetoric on China economically.

[StevenChilton]

Beijing won't give up on NK, it's a foreign policy objective to maintain that buffer and has been since the Korean War. Also trading NK for economic easing would be a major win for Washington and a loss of face for the Chinese. Plus within the Chinese Communist Party itself there's great affection for NK, especially among the old guard.

Also Russia and PRC have never been closer-they recently conducted joint military exercises close to the Korean border!

[Duuring]

Yeah, they won't give up on it - so they'll storm in and put in place a new, more China-dependent regime. That's much cheaper then going to war with the USA over a shitty bufferzone.

Frauke Petry wants to start her own faction in the Bundestag named 'Die blauen', which might mean more AfD-MP's will break away.

[Cazasar]

That is not confirmed yet is it?

[Furrnox]

Yeah, they won't give up on it - so they'll storm in and put in place a new, more China-dependent regime. That's much cheaper then going to war with the USA over a shitty bufferzone.

Frauke Petry wants to start her own faction in the Bundestag named 'Die blauen', which might mean more AfD-MP's will break away.

Great work AfD what a joke of a party.

[William]

A ‘joke’ that won a massive section in German Parliament in an extremely short time span in a country that can’t go 5 minutes without blaming itself for the world wars. Either way it’s too late; Germany is lost as well as most of mainland Europe.

[Toffee]

So did UKIP who are now irrelevant. Right wing parties gain power in times of mass hysteria and lose it when it dies down.

[Edwin]

So did UKIP who are now irrelevant. Right wing parties gain power in times of mass hysteria and lose it when it dies down.

An irrelevant and incorrect statement given that:

1) The United Kingdom isn't riddled with (too much) war guilt unlike Germany
2) UKIP were never a real threat to the Tories or Labour even while Farage was leader
3) UKIP's sole mission was getting the UK out of the EU, hence they've fallen apart now that their "mission" is a success

[Toffee]

Isn't irrelevant at all. Whatever their goal they took advantage of the perceived issue of the time. Weather that be the EU or war guilt it's all the same. When people are worried right wing parties step in, and then when the issue subsides or is dealt with in some way, they fade way. My point is that the afd probably won't ever become a permanent major player in German politics and they'll never get into government.

[Edwin]

You'd have been correct had you stated that extreme circumstances result in extreme parties gaining more voters - that's a given. Also, I think it's well established that AfD is a far-right party, hence the infighting within the party as a result of some of their MPs holding more moderate and thus conflicting view points.

My point is that the afd probably won't ever become a permanent major player in German politics and they'll never get into government.

I speculate it'll be quite the contrary: the situation will only get worse as more economic migrants come into Germany, resulting in even more social strife on top of that already caused by the poor integration of migrants from 2015 on wards.

[Toffee]

I'm still correct either way. My statement isn't wrong. I didn't state that the afd weren't far right so I don't know what about my post that you're taking issue with.

There's no room for extremes in modern politics. The furthest you'll ever get is someone like Jeremy Corbyn who isn't nearly as far left as the afd are far right. I doubt they'll take hold.

[Theodin]

I'm still correct either way. My statement isn't wrong. I didn't state that the afd weren't far right so I don't know what about my post that you're taking issue with.

There's no room for extremes in modern politics. The furthest you'll ever get is someone like Jeremy Corbyn who isn't nearly as far left as the afd are far right. I doubt they'll take hold.

Like you can measure numerically how extreme someone is.