A complete implosion of China is possible. This could be caused by an economic crisis or a failed military venture abroad which destroys the legitimacy of the communist party and sparks a revolution calling for democratic and other reforms. Perhaps in tandem with this, North Korea implodes and is reunified with South Korea (this is unlikely to occur without a major change in China first, given their status as essentially a buffer state with the US-backed south).
[Later in the paper]:
-An alliance of African nations form to combat common issues. One possible state that stands out as a future superpower is the ‘East African Federation’, an intended evolution of the existing ‘East African Community’ that now includes Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Sudan. At present these states are very poor, with a combined GDP smaller than New Zealand. However, they are now growing at 6% a year. Linked by Swahili as a common lingual, they are expected to have a population of 410 million by 2050 and 800 million by 2100 – not far behind India and China. If their political integration succeeds and their economic growth continues, the EAF could emerge as a major world power by mid-century.
[Later in the paper]:
-Significant advances in medicine and medical technology. ML and AI, along with a move towards personalized and algorithmic care, radically change how we receive basic medical care, manage chronic diseases, and perhaps with cheap genomics we see an increase in lifespan through optimized medical care. Medical imaging will become exponentially cheaper, with sub-cellular resolution, and more likely to happen in-office if this tech works out. It revolutionizes medical care long before we get into the computer-brain interface and telepathy. Anti-aging efforts start to bear fruit. This one has many question marks attached, but I would expect that substantial progress will eventually be made. Global life expectancy is now 72 years, up from 67 in the year 2000 or 48 in 1950. Most of this has been as the ‘low-hanging fruit’ of vaccines, improved sanitation and nutrition and other changes have finally spread to the third world.
"A complete implosion of China is possible. This could be caused by an economic crisis or a failed military venture abroad which destroys the legitimacy of the communist party and sparks a revolution calling for democratic and other reforms. Perhaps in tandem with this, North Korea implodes and is reunified with South Korea (this is unlikely to occur without a major change in China first, given their status as essentially a buffer state with the US-backed south).
One possible state that stands out as a future superpower is the ‘East African Federation’, an intended evolution of the existing ‘East African Community’ that now includes Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Sudan. At present these states are very poor, with a combined GDP smaller than New Zealand. However, they are now growing at 6% a year. Linked by Swahili as a common lingua franca they are expected to have a population of 410 million by 2050 and 800 million by 2100 – not far behind India and China. If their political integration succeeds and their economic growth continues, the EAF could emerge as a major world power by mid-century.
[Later in his paper]
Anti-aging efforts start to bear fruit – this one has many question marks attached, but I would expect that substantial progress will eventually be made. Global life expectancy is now 72 years, up from 67 in the year 2000 or 48 in 1950. Most of this has been as the ‘low-hanging fruit’ of vaccines, improved sanitation and nutrition and other changes have finally spread to the third world. " Author: u/ThomasHobbesROK
Website URL:
https://www.reddit.com/r/FutureWhatIf/comments/8o15b1/top_ten_predictions_for_2050/?utm_source-Automation has decimated the manual labor market. Global unemployment levels have risen from 8% to 15% over last two decades - plenty of long-term untrainable unemployed workers in that 15%. This results in record levels of crime and xenophobia in developed countries.
"Automation has decimated the manual labor market. Global unemployment levels have risen from 8% to 15% over last two decades – plenty of long-term untrainable unemployed workers in that 15%. This results in record levels of crime and xenophobia in developed countries."Author: Tanmay Subhash
Website URL:
https://techuerydecode.com/2018/03/20/technology-predictions-likely-to-become-a-reality-in-next-two-decades/In case you were wondering, no, this was not the only paper in which Winters plagiarized someone else's work. His supposed masterpiece, "Inmendham and Efilism: Philosophical Genius", is also someone else's work.
The answer is simple.
Only by looking at the core of the psychology of sentient beings can you determine who's the biased one and who's the realist. Think about why the zebras chases any feel good moment. Because it would feel deprivation from not having those moments. Just like you. You think the zebra eats mainly for the taste? No, it eats because it's fucking hungry. Just like both you and the zebra are hungry for satisfactory moments. The core of the game is suffering and avoiding it as much as you can. We are addicted to being whipped less than usually. It makes wayyy too much sense when you consider that an efficient psychology in evolution isn't one that is happy. It's one that gets the job done. And for this, you need an animal that is motivated to do shit, never truly being satisfied. We exist to WANT to be happy/in peace, not to BE happy. And life constantly imposes suffering onto us, problems with have to deal with. The brain is a problem solving machine. It's a zero sum game, a scam.
"The answer is simple:
Only by looking at the core of the psychology of sentient beings can you determine who's the biased one and who's the realist:
Think about why the zebras chases any feelgood moment.
Because it would feel deprivation from not having those moments. Just like you.
You think the zebra eats mainly for the taste?
No, it eats because it's fucking hungry.
Just like both you and the zebra are hungry for satisfactory moments.
The core of the game is suffering and avoiding it as much as you can. We are addicted to being whipped less than usually.
It makes wayyy too much sense when you consider that an efficient psychology in evolution isn't one that is happy. It's one that gets the job done. And for this, you need an animal that is motivated to do shit, never truly being satisfied.
We exist to WANT to be happy/ in peace. Not to BE happy. And life constantly imposes suffering onto us, problems with have to deal with. The brain is a problem solving machine.
It's a zero sum game, a scam, and it should end as soon as possible."
Author: u/Uridoz
Date: March 17th, 2018 (A full year before Winters' essay)
URL:
https://www.reddit.com/r/antinatalism/comments/852vvu/doubts_about_efilism/bold text signifies plagiarism
We recognize that the welfare of all living creatures (be it a frog or human) are of equal importance. This is juxtaposed to speciesism, which values one animal over another. This concept is fundamentally flawed on many levels and is presented with a dose of the irrational. We were all born to be slaughtered. No sentient being is immune. Without humans, other animals will continue to suffer just like they have been for millions of years. The main difference between human and non-human species is our capacity to understand the futility of existence and right from wrong. We have the intellectual ability to see the meat grinder for what it really is. We are all in this rat maze together.
The best interest of humans are in conflict with nature. If we stay alive to try solving suffering in all organisms in the universe then we ourselves will be forced to remain in suffering. And we don't even know if its possible to solve all suffering, its not a guarantee. Is it right to force our own kind to suffer for an indefinite amount of time chasing a gargantuan and potentially impossible to solve task? What makes us morally obligated to complete such a task, the accident of our cognition?
The answer is simple.
Only by looking at the core of the psychology of sentient beings can you determine who's the biased one and who's the realist. Think about why the zebras chases any feel good moment. Because it would feel deprivation from not having those moments. Just like you. You think the zebra eats mainly for the taste? No, it eats because it's fucking hungry. Just like both you and the zebra are hungry for satisfactory moments. The core of the game is suffering and avoiding it as much as you can. We are addicted to being whipped less than usually. It makes wayyy too much sense when you consider that an efficient psychology in evolution isn't one that is happy. It's one that gets the job done. And for this, you need an animal that is motivated to do shit, never truly being satisfied. We exist to WANT to be happy/in peace, not to BE happy. And life constantly imposes suffering onto us, problems with have to deal with. The brain is a problem solving machine. It's a zero sum game, a scam.
This is where Gary, or "Inmendham" comes into play.
I largely consider this man to be a public intellectual to the highest degree.I have never seen a man that argues so efficiently for any sort of philosophical or ethical position as he does. His logic is irrefutable and cannot be argued against without resorting to fallacies of all sorts. There is no piercing his rationale, for it is the answer to our woes by adding finality to the existential dilemma.
Our nervous systems are hardwired to experience suffering far more than pleasure; both in intensity and duration. This brutal functionality of nature motivates all species to stay alive long enough to pass their DNA to the next generation. This would also explain why sex is so pleasurable. Life evolved to torture and to be tortured. We are all victims and predators. There is no justification for nature’s cruel design. It’s wasteful, needless, and causes suffering. As Gary puts it, “life is more friction than function”. With knowledge comes responsibility. We must be janitorial, not wasteful in our endeavor to eliminate harm. As far as the red button scenario goes, I wouldn’t press it unless it painlessly and instantaneously evaporated all life on Earth, from men to microbes. And only if pressing that button had a guaranteed failsafe that would prevent life from re-emerging.
More than 50% of his "masterpiece" essay is someone else's idea.
Those weren't all the cases of plagiarism I found, just the easiest to convey. I found several instances where the language of Winters' paper was changed sufficiently to fool plagiarism detection software, but not enough to make it his unique words. Overall I would estimate the percentage of plagiarism in this essay as at least 25%, though I haven't done extensive searching on it, only cursory, and the amount could be much higher if you use the interpretation of plagiarism as including ideas and concepts in addition to direct words of other authors. Regardless, the amount found is definitely enough to fail Winters if his paper was submitted for grading, and usually enough to begin academic disciplinary proceedings if the paper was of substantial weight. I'm honestly a little surprised that Winters would resort to what essentially amounts to intellectual theft.
But do you want to know the kicker? He appears to have looked through articles that by and large give an
optimistic view of the future, then cherry picked the few pessimistic portions he could get his hands on and used them to construct the foundation for his essay. The Reddit Futurism post is a good example of this. I would say I feel ashamed for Winters and deceived, but this is NW so I've come to expect this level of nonsense. In conclusion, in the future I would take anything of this nature posted by Winters with a larger amount of skepticism than before, and hopefully in turn he will strive to avoid plagiarizing the works of others.
TL;DR: I don't want to be the one saying this, but I feel I should.
Winters is a fraud. 
