Author Topic: Russian plane shot down by Turkey  (Read 20942 times)

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Offline MaxLam

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #105 on: November 26, 2015, 01:13:01 pm »
As far as I know they DO use manpads and have been doing so for quite some time. They managed to destroy a Syrian plane taking off months ago. Yes 6km is out of range and that is a HIGH altitude as I said, not a low altitude. So we have all reasons to believe that the plane was flying at high altitude.


Offline Rejenorst

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #106 on: November 26, 2015, 01:18:30 pm »
Its possible that a manpad has been used or captured at one point but so far the notion is that Manpads are not widely in use if at all in Syria.

“The White House has succeeded at keeping Manpads out of Syria since the start of the war because of concerns they could fall into the wrong hands and be used against commercial aircraft in the region and beyond,”
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-official-describes-nightmare-manpad-scenario-in-syria-2015-10?r=US&IR=T

Cruise speed is at 10km > this is due to lessened air density. You can certainly fly at higher speeds below that but you will burn fuel much faster and for a bomber that is circling to support ground forces this is not ideal.
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Offline MaxLam

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #107 on: November 26, 2015, 01:28:49 pm »
I would be curious to see your sources regarding cruise speed and altitude for a SU-24. That doesn't seem unlikely, but either way 6000m is not far from 10 000m. A low altitude would be something between 2000 and 4000 imo.

I have no evidence that the US started delivering manpads, but they have started discussing this possibility in October. Anyway, the existence of AA systems in Syria is not uncommon. For example I remember having seen some kind of cargo plane getting shot down as it was taking off a base. You can also find plenty evidences on youtube, just like this one:



And finally this:

http://themoscowjournal.com/air-force-of-syria-fighters-have-stinger-missile-systems/html

“We know that fighters have Stinger complexes and some other, including the Chinese production which they took at our military. It is necessary to recognize that from their attacks we lose many planes” – the representative of air base reported. According to him, “the minimum height at which it is safely to fly – is 4,5 kilometers”. At the same time, the officer recognized, “often our pilots decrease on dangerous height for drawing more direct shots that the civil infrastructure did not suffer, and objects of terrorists were struck”

Offline Rejenorst

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #108 on: November 26, 2015, 01:48:31 pm »
There's multiple sources on optimal commercial aircraft cruising altitudes being around 28,000 - 33,000 feet and higher for efficient fuel consumption.
http://www.fearofflyingphobia.com/flysohigh.html

In terms of military aircraft I am less knowledgeable but apparently the SU-24 was designed for lengthy low altitude cruising according to wiki and Sukhoi:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-24

No optimal or min alt is given for cruising though.

In regards to the manpad your source claims that the min altitude that is safe to fly is 4.5km it seems.  I was under the impression stingers had twice that range? Your source also quotes the Syrian army stating that the stingers where captured from their own forces so they should know roughly how many are in circulation or have been in circulation.

In terms of aircraft speed the SU24 won't stall at 700km/h. Whether it was flying at that speed I don't know as I am not sure what their minimum combat speed is for ground operations. 2.19km / 17 * 60 * 60 however places the plane at unusually low speeds.

I should point out though that the faster you go prior to a combat run the longer it takes to turn. The airport alone is apprx 50km away. Flying at 700km/h would result in getting back within 4 minutes and 14 seconds so its not a slow speed. No point going supersonic if you need to slow down and turn at a moments notice then line up with the target.  The biggest evidence that we have that it wasn't going supersonic is that its wings weren't folded back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3331558/Turkey-shoots-fighter-jet-Syrian-border-Local-media-footage-flaming-plane-crashing-trees.html




« Last Edit: November 26, 2015, 02:04:28 pm by Rejenorst »
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Offline Olafson

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #109 on: November 26, 2015, 02:34:43 pm »
Does it matter whether a Stinger would have been able to destroy a fighter jet, or not? Fact is, that it was shot down by the Turkish Airforce.

Offline Rejenorst

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #110 on: November 26, 2015, 02:38:50 pm »
No it doesn't matter at all. We were just discussing manpad proliferation and safe altitudes.
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Offline Liam

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #111 on: November 26, 2015, 02:40:14 pm »
Ted's math hurt my head I forgot that * meant x lmao

his math was literally 3 operations.


Mate I knew I just thought Ted was a monkey.

Offline MaxLam

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #112 on: November 26, 2015, 02:54:39 pm »
Quote from: Rejenorst
There's multiple sources on optimal commercial aircraft cruising altitudes being around 28,000 - 33,000 feet and higher for efficient fuel consumption.
http://www.fearofflyingphobia.com/flysohigh.html

In terms of military aircraft I am less knowledgeable but apparently the SU-24 was designed for lengthy low altitude cruising according to wiki and Sukhoi:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-24

No optimal or min alt is given for cruising though.

In regards to the manpad your source claims that the min altitude that is safe to fly is 4.5km it seems.  I was under the impression stingers had twice that range? Your source also quotes the Syrian army stating that the stingers where captured from their own forces so they should know roughly how many are in circulation or have been in circulation.

In terms of aircraft speed the SU24 won't stall at 700km/h. Whether it was flying at that speed I don't know as I am not sure what their minimum combat speed is for ground operations. 2.19km / 17 * 60 * 60 however places the plane at unusually low speeds.

I should point out though that the faster you go prior to a combat run the longer it takes to turn. The airport alone is apprx 50km away. Flying at 700km/h would result in getting back within 4 minutes and 14 seconds so its not a slow speed. No point going supersonic if you need to slow down and turn at a moments notice then line up with the target.  The biggest evidence that we have that it wasn't going supersonic is that its wings weren't folded back.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3331558/Turkey-shoots-fighter-jet-Syrian-border-Local-media-footage-flaming-plane-crashing-trees.html
You said 2.19km but Turks said "a depth of 1.36 miles and 1.15 miles in length". Basically, it means that they moved on 1.15 miles inside, which represented a "depth" of 1.36 miles from the southern border. 1.15 miles = 1.8 kilometers. So this is even slower and corresponds, as I said, to roughly 300 km/h. "Unusally slow" would be more than a euphemism.

As you said, the SU-24 was designed for low altitude cruising, however you forgot to mention this:  "at supersonic speeds [...] in order to traverse enemy air defenses."

So I'm not sure that the unfolded wings prove anything. At which speed do they usually unfold? Moreover, the plane was apparently getting up, and not down, so it's very well possible that the pilots unfolded after the hit as they tried to keep flying.

As for the stingers, apparently you saw the "range" which is different from the altitude. The max altitude of the stinger is 3500 meters.

See there:

http://www.armyrecognition.com/united_states_american_missile_system_vehicle_uk/stinger_fim-92_fim-92a_man_portable_air_defense_missile_system_manpads_technical_data_sheet_picture.html

Otherwise the MH17 could have been destroyed by any Russian manpad.

Quote from:  Olafson
Does it matter whether a Stinger would have been able to destroy a fighter jet, or not? Fact is, that it was shot down by the Turkish Airforce.
We were talking about stingers and manpads in general because you can fly at low altitudes when you know that there is no risk. At the beginning of the war the Syrians were fighting at very low altitude with their Albatros and were even bombing with helicopters. But now they just can't. So if we want to determine the altitude, and consequently the speed, we must discuss this risk.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2015, 02:56:33 pm by MaxLam »

Offline Rejenorst

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #113 on: November 26, 2015, 03:10:05 pm »

You said 2.19km but Turks said "a depth of 1.36 miles and 1.15 miles in length". Basically, it means that they moved on 1.15 miles inside, which represented a "depth" of 1.36 miles from the southern border. 1.15 miles = 1.8 kilometers. So this is even slower and corresponds, as I said, to roughly 300 km/h. "Unusally slow" would be more than a euphemism.

Turkey's ambassador to the United Nations Halit Cevik said in a letter to the Security Council that two planes were involved, one of which was shot down while the other left Turkish airspace. He said both had flown 1.36 miles (2.19 kilometers) into Turkish airspace for 17 seconds from 0724 GMT Tuesday.
http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/93513-151125-us-believes-russian-jet-exploded-in-syrian-airspace-official


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As you said, the SU-24 was designed for low altitude cruising, however you forgot to mention this:  "at supersonic speeds [...] in order to traverse enemy air defenses."
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Which still doesn't provide us with a min cruise height.


Quote
So I'm not sure that the unfolded wings prove anything. At which speed do they usually unfold? Moreover, the plane was apparently getting up, and not down, so it's very well possible that the pilots unfolded after the hit as they tried to keep flying.

Wasn't there only a single hit from an AIM-120? As for wings. Supersonic would imply 1,235km/h >=

By this time, Soviet designers were lagging significantly behind their American counterparts who had put the state-of-the-art F-111 aircraft into the skies eight months earlier. The U.S. aircraft had a variable-sweep wing ("swing wing"), which could be adjusted backward for supersonic flight and then returned to its original wide-angled position for slow speeds. This allowed the plane to combine high-altitude supersonic flight and stable low-altitude flight while carrying a heavy bomb load.
http://rbth.com/defence/2015/04/20/the_su-24_attack_interceptor_jack_of_two_trades_master_of_both_45379.html


Quote
As for the stingers, apparently you saw the "range" which is different from the altitude. The max altitude of the stinger is 3500 meters.

See there:

http://www.armyrecognition.com/united_states_american_missile_system_vehicle_uk/stinger_fim-92_fim-92a_man_portable_air_defense_missile_system_manpads_technical_data_sheet_picture.html

No problems in which case 6km should be safe.

Quote
Otherwise the MH17 could have been destroyed by any Russian manpad.

Well it flew 10km > afaik

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Offline Olafson

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #114 on: November 26, 2015, 03:22:26 pm »

You said 2.19km but Turks said "a depth of 1.36 miles and 1.15 miles in length". Basically, it means that they moved on 1.15 miles inside, which represented a "depth" of 1.36 miles from the southern border. 1.15 miles = 1.8 kilometers. So this is even slower and corresponds, as I said, to roughly 300 km/h. "Unusally slow" would be more than a euphemism.



Do I understand this right? Does that mean that the Airplane went up/down while being in Turkey?

That would mean that it actually traveled a distance of 2.87 Km inside Turkey.
Because you know



A = 2.18 Km
B = 1.85 Km
Therefore
C = 2.87 Km

If the plane stayed in Turkish Airspace for 17 seconds that would mean that it was traveling at: 607.764705882 Km/h

Offline Rejenorst

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #115 on: November 26, 2015, 03:24:15 pm »
^ Could be this yeah.
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Offline MaxLam

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #116 on: November 26, 2015, 03:27:18 pm »
What?  ???

Offline Rejenorst

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #117 on: November 26, 2015, 03:29:17 pm »
Well according to radar image the plane flew North-West across T airspace so maybe the depth and length was provided.  Makes more sense.
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Offline MaxLam

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #118 on: November 26, 2015, 03:31:03 pm »
I still don't understand what they would mean precisely by "length" and "depth". For me "length" is the distance.

Offline Danik

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Re: Russian plane shot down by Turkey
« Reply #119 on: November 26, 2015, 03:31:33 pm »
Currently, Kurds and Russian forces are fighting in different parts of Syria. Multiple news sources tells that a major leader from Peshmerga forces have shown interest in closer co-operation with Russia.

Peshmerga are Iraqi Kurds.
Oh, my bad. He is a leader of a Kurd party which fights in Syria.