Author Topic: Theodin's Book of Melee  (Read 71134 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Mexican

  • Lieutenant Colonel
  • *
  • Posts: 3081
  • perpetually injected with Imipolex G since 2013
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Meximemer
  • Side: Union
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #435 on: October 09, 2021, 10:12:49 pm »
The only stat that matters is ping xd
666x 1v1 Champion | 69x 5v5 Winner | 420x Regimental Champion | 1x Autistic Memer Award

Offline BabyJesus

  • General
  • ****
  • Posts: 12200
  • #1 Cringe poster and lover of Anna Kendrick
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Most Average MVP of All Time
  • Side: Union
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #436 on: October 09, 2021, 11:12:12 pm »
The only stat that matters is ping xd
higher ping=better auto
1st NWPC S2(21st)|(1st) 5v5 Draft~NA GroupFighting Tournament  |1st♕Rex's 6v6 Tournament | 1st TNWL S2(71st) | 1st NWL S5 (58e) | 3rd place Sleeks 5v5 (Highschoole DxD)
You are by far the best average player to touch this game.
Quote from: Risk
The BEST average player of all time

Offline Hawkince

  • Lieutenant Colonel
  • *
  • Posts: 2046
  • #Hawince2018 #ImWithHawkince #🅱awkince2018
    • View Profile
  • Nick: lebornjames2007mikaljordan
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #437 on: October 09, 2021, 11:54:52 pm »
Theodin is bringing Moneyball to NW lmao



he gets on base

Offline Yvrul

  • Private
  • *
  • Posts: 309
  • Lt. of the 1. Leib Husaren, IV Korps for life
    • View Profile
  • Nick: 1LH_Lt_Lurvy / 4e_Huss_Cvl_Lurvy
  • Side: Neutral
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #438 on: October 11, 2021, 01:48:10 am »
Bill never won a tournament till he played with me.

Offline Theodin

  • Colonel
  • *
  • Posts: 10858
    • View Profile
  • Nick: 71st Guard MEME POLICE
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #439 on: October 11, 2021, 06:01:33 am »
Ever heard of WAR?

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a stat used in Baseball and Basketball to measure how many "wins" a team would have with a player opposed to another player at replacement level. Often players are judged by their KDs to evaluate impact, but I believe that KD is just one factor in total impact - and so I considered combining other statistical elements to see whether players were being valued fairly through the stats combined.

The methodology is simple - thanks to Waste's leaderboards that track KD, First Bloods and Score we have three separate but equally important statistics on which to measure players.

Take a statline like Risk's, for example, and calculate his WAR:



A 1.13 KDR, 1.10 First Bloods Ratio (FBR), and 215.4 score. So let's multiply them all together - 215.4*1.13*1.10 = 267.74. We could end here, but we'd be working with some pretty hefty numbers, and WAR is usually expressed as a number between 0-10. So to get those big numbers down to numbers we can work with in terms of WAR we divide the final total - 267.75 - by the number of players who've played in a match this season, which is 64. This (267.74/64) brings us down to a manageable 4.2.

Waste has done all the calculations for everyone who has played in James's 6v6 draft league - leaderboards can be found here - and found the averages over the league as a reference: so far in James's 6v6, the average KDR is 0.98, the average FBR is 0.94, and the average Score is 110.1. This would lead to a league average WAR of 1.58.

Now how do we apply that in terms of scale? Well, this chart identifies the classification of players' WAR scores in Baseball - but I think the ranges vary a bit in NW.
Spoiler
[close]

I think of NWs ranges as
0-1 Replacement level
1-2 Utility Player
2-4 Average Starter
4-6 All-Star Level Player
6+ Superstar/MVP caliber

Waste's leaderboards has everyone's WAR scores so far under the Matches tab and the next post will be screenshots of the scores sorted from top to bottom. Lemme know what you think about NW Wins Above Replacement!
« Last Edit: October 11, 2021, 06:08:30 am by Theodin »

1x NA Duel- Runner up |  3x 3v3- 3rd place (Seadderol Deflatriots) (Ez Money) (71st Guards + Russian) | 1x Duel League- 4th place | 1x Regimental Groupfighting- 1st place (71st)  l  1x 2v2- 3rd Place (Vortex/Theodin) | TNWL Season 2 - 1st Place l 1x 2v2- 1st Place (Theodin/Elite) l 2x NANWL-
 71st, Nr8(LG) l 1x 4v4- 1st Place (RussianFury, Waste, NickCole, Theodin) l 1x Cav Joust- 2nd Place l 1x 4v4-
 3rd Place (Theodin, AsianP, Sleek, Godfried, Lurvy) l 1x 5v5 - 1st Place (RussianFury, Yoshie, Krastinov, Jorge, Theodin - Thanos and his children)

Offline Theodin

  • Colonel
  • *
  • Posts: 10858
    • View Profile
  • Nick: 71st Guard MEME POLICE
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #440 on: October 11, 2021, 06:04:36 am »
WAR in order


[close]

As a long term project I'm going to find the WAR from previous seasons of draft leagues that were 5v5+ and had the BO3 system to create one big bank for WAR scores. So if you happen to have any leaderboards that Waste doesn't pls lemme know!

Thanks to Waste and Russian for the help with this one - and especially to Waste for his stats and spreadsheets!

1x NA Duel- Runner up |  3x 3v3- 3rd place (Seadderol Deflatriots) (Ez Money) (71st Guards + Russian) | 1x Duel League- 4th place | 1x Regimental Groupfighting- 1st place (71st)  l  1x 2v2- 3rd Place (Vortex/Theodin) | TNWL Season 2 - 1st Place l 1x 2v2- 1st Place (Theodin/Elite) l 2x NANWL-
 71st, Nr8(LG) l 1x 4v4- 1st Place (RussianFury, Waste, NickCole, Theodin) l 1x Cav Joust- 2nd Place l 1x 4v4-
 3rd Place (Theodin, AsianP, Sleek, Godfried, Lurvy) l 1x 5v5 - 1st Place (RussianFury, Yoshie, Krastinov, Jorge, Theodin - Thanos and his children)

Offline RussianFury

  • Lieutenant General
  • ***
  • Posts: 4378
  • Tribal Chief
    • View Profile
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #441 on: October 11, 2021, 06:09:23 am »
Theodin is bringing Moneyball to NW lmao



Offline Fartknocker

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 3840
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Fartknocker
  • Side: Neutral
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #442 on: October 11, 2021, 06:36:05 am »
Utility player? I’ll take it.
63e pawn in an anti-63e world.

Offline Hawkince

  • Lieutenant Colonel
  • *
  • Posts: 2046
  • #Hawince2018 #ImWithHawkince #🅱awkince2018
    • View Profile
  • Nick: lebornjames2007mikaljordan
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #443 on: October 11, 2021, 07:30:06 am »


Sorry cwater the numbers don't lie

Kapow gets on base

Offline Cwater

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 755
  • Pretty much a self hating Jew
    • View Profile
  • Nick: ~38e~ReichsFuhrer_Himmler
  • Side: Union
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #444 on: October 11, 2021, 08:02:49 am »


Sorry cwater the numbers don't lie

Kapow gets on base

No one can compete with Kumpow chicken

Offline No0B

  • First Lieutenant
  • *
  • Posts: 1036
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Doctor Noob/2LBI_CSgt_Noob
  • Side: Neutral
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #445 on: October 11, 2021, 03:06:46 pm »


Sorry cwater the numbers don't lie

Kapow gets on base
According to this I am a super star something must be wrong here

Offline No0B

  • First Lieutenant
  • *
  • Posts: 1036
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Doctor Noob/2LBI_CSgt_Noob
  • Side: Neutral
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #446 on: October 11, 2021, 03:11:51 pm »
Ever heard of WAR?

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a stat used in Baseball and Basketball to measure how many "wins" a team would have with a player opposed to another player at replacement level. Often players are judged by their KDs to evaluate impact, but I believe that KD is just one factor in total impact - and so I considered combining other statistical elements to see whether players were being valued fairly through the stats combined.

The methodology is simple - thanks to Waste's leaderboards that track KD, First Bloods and Score we have three separate but equally important statistics on which to measure players.

Take a statline like Risk's, for example, and calculate his WAR:



A 1.13 KDR, 1.10 First Bloods Ratio (FBR), and 215.4 score. So let's multiply them all together - 215.4*1.13*1.10 = 267.74. We could end here, but we'd be working with some pretty hefty numbers, and WAR is usually expressed as a number between 0-10. So to get those big numbers down to numbers we can work with in terms of WAR we divide the final total - 267.75 - by the number of players who've played in a match this season, which is 64. This (267.74/64) brings us down to a manageable 4.2.

Waste has done all the calculations for everyone who has played in James's 6v6 draft league - leaderboards can be found here - and found the averages over the league as a reference: so far in James's 6v6, the average KDR is 0.98, the average FBR is 0.94, and the average Score is 110.1. This would lead to a league average WAR of 1.58.

Now how do we apply that in terms of scale? Well, this chart identifies the classification of players' WAR scores in Baseball - but I think the ranges vary a bit in NW.
Spoiler
[close]

I think of NWs ranges as
0-1 Replacement level
1-2 Utility Player
2-4 Average Starter
4-6 All-Star Level Player
6+ Superstar/MVP caliber

Waste's leaderboards has everyone's WAR scores so far under the Matches tab and the next post will be screenshots of the scores sorted from top to bottom. Lemme know what you think about NW Wins Above Replacement!

Good idea but clearly needs more tuning I think we should take in consideration total matches played because the less matches you played the more skewed your numbers will be

Offline Theodin

  • Colonel
  • *
  • Posts: 10858
    • View Profile
  • Nick: 71st Guard MEME POLICE
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #447 on: October 11, 2021, 04:07:52 pm »
Volume is an interesting wrinkle for this, as lower sample sizes can impact your score but in most cases volume is fairly equal

1x NA Duel- Runner up |  3x 3v3- 3rd place (Seadderol Deflatriots) (Ez Money) (71st Guards + Russian) | 1x Duel League- 4th place | 1x Regimental Groupfighting- 1st place (71st)  l  1x 2v2- 3rd Place (Vortex/Theodin) | TNWL Season 2 - 1st Place l 1x 2v2- 1st Place (Theodin/Elite) l 2x NANWL-
 71st, Nr8(LG) l 1x 4v4- 1st Place (RussianFury, Waste, NickCole, Theodin) l 1x Cav Joust- 2nd Place l 1x 4v4-
 3rd Place (Theodin, AsianP, Sleek, Godfried, Lurvy) l 1x 5v5 - 1st Place (RussianFury, Yoshie, Krastinov, Jorge, Theodin - Thanos and his children)

Offline BabyJesus

  • General
  • ****
  • Posts: 12200
  • #1 Cringe poster and lover of Anna Kendrick
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Most Average MVP of All Time
  • Side: Union
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #448 on: October 11, 2021, 05:06:16 pm »
Just another way to say Theo is bad
1st NWPC S2(21st)|(1st) 5v5 Draft~NA GroupFighting Tournament  |1st♕Rex's 6v6 Tournament | 1st TNWL S2(71st) | 1st NWL S5 (58e) | 3rd place Sleeks 5v5 (Highschoole DxD)
You are by far the best average player to touch this game.
Quote from: Risk
The BEST average player of all time

Offline ~NickCole~

  • Brigadier General
  • *
  • Posts: 13370
  • Your nans
    • View Profile
  • Nick: 093
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #449 on: October 11, 2021, 07:39:14 pm »
Kapow is the Michael Jordan of NW