Author Topic: Theodin's Book of Melee  (Read 56518 times)

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Offline LEVIS

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #450 on: October 11, 2021, 08:32:34 pm »

Offline Superbad

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #451 on: October 12, 2021, 01:21:28 am »
I actually like the idea of a WAR-type stat in NW. I'm gonna guess mine is 0.69


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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #452 on: October 12, 2021, 02:04:36 am »
does this just mean who is likely to give you a chance to win or....?  And are tks also added into this?
« Last Edit: October 12, 2021, 02:10:47 am by Runepkyz »
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Offline BabyJesus

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #453 on: October 12, 2021, 02:22:08 am »
does this just mean who is likely to give you a chance to win or....?  And are tks also added into this?
it pretty much just adds your score from the leaderboards and your first blood ratio into one stat
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Offline Theodin

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #454 on: October 12, 2021, 05:38:13 am »
does this just mean who is likely to give you a chance to win or....?  And are tks also added into this?
what babyj says^ it's a more complete statistical picture than just score
also Waste's score includes tks so this does include tks

1x NA Duel- Runner up |  3x 3v3- 3rd place (Seadderol Deflatriots) (Ez Money) (71st Guards + Russian) | 1x Duel League- 4th place | 1x Regimental Groupfighting- 1st place (71st)  l  1x 2v2- 3rd Place (Vortex/Theodin) | TNWL Season 2 - 1st Place l 1x 2v2- 1st Place (Theodin/Elite) l 2x NANWL-
 71st, Nr8(LG) l 1x 4v4- 1st Place (RussianFury, Waste, NickCole, Theodin) l 1x Cav Joust- 2nd Place l 1x 4v4-
 3rd Place (Theodin, AsianP, Sleek, Godfried, Lurvy) l 1x 5v5 - 1st Place (RussianFury, Yoshie, Krastinov, Jorge, Theodin - Thanos and his children)

Offline JollyCanadian

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #455 on: October 12, 2021, 05:51:26 am »
does this just mean who is likely to give you a chance to win or....?  And are tks also added into this?
what babyj says^ it's a more complete statistical picture than just score
also Waste's score includes tks so this does include tks
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Offline Xethos

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #456 on: October 12, 2021, 02:59:00 pm »
I think if you're going to try to make a value added stat as opposed to another rate stat, you have to figure out the value of a kill, a death and a teamkill. WAR in baseball sort of works because SABR has sat down and figured out how many runs an offensive has to score and how many runs a defense has to . . . not allow? . . . to win a game in a given run environment. SABR figures that, in a 5 run per game environment, a batter needs to produce an extra 10 runs to be worth an extra win. I don't think that's the case for the draft leagues since, unlike baseball, we know exactly how many "points" we need to score to win a single round. In the case of the current league, is 6. I don't think we can easily, with any certainty, accurately assess preventing enemy kills, primarily because we don't track rounds in which a player played and did not die. Even with kills, we can't really do what baseball WAR does, because it ultimately constructs a run expectancy for a plate appearance and assigns every possible outcome a run value. We can't really count opportunities, so we have to basically overvalue opportunities taken to compensate for undervaluing opportunities missed.

I would guess that to set the replacement level, you would have to decide how set a stat line of the supposed replacement player, compare the value of kills and deaths to that replacement player. Again, assessing opportunity is the problem. The closest I can come up with is deaths. That is, set the replacement player's deaths to the player you're evaluating and multiply that by the replacement K/D to get the replacement kills, and you can get teamkills the same way. It's not ideal mainly because it doesn't sufficiently reward players who don't die. It may also be that just guessing for rounds played would be sufficient, especially if nobody is interested outside of the top 15 or 20 players anyway, because the only way top players miss rounds is if they miss the match entirely or their internet cuts out.

I also have absolutely no idea how first bloods factor in, partly because they don't play nicely in the formulas I was fiddling with, and in part because, as far as I know, we don't actually know exactly how valuable a first blood is.

A couple of leagues ago, when I had log access, I was tempted to try to calculate situational win probability. In a 5v3, how often does the team with 5 alive win, and how often the team with 3? If we had win rates for all the permutations of a draft league match, we could calculate kill win probably added. It would just be a matter of giving credit for the change in win expectancy to whoever got the kill and subtracting the same from the player who died. Of course, it would substitute for WAA more than WAR, and I have no idea without trying whether it'd be easier to generate a replacement player for that sort of thing. You'd also get a nice statistical phenomenon where the league would have a negative WPA, because it's possible to cost your own team win expectancy without any player on the other team earning any.

I ended up not doing it because it would have required more set up work than I was prepared to do. Most of the counting could be automated pretty easily, but it still would require extensive log edits to get something to feed into whatever is doing the counting. The resulting stat would still have its problems as well. It would, for example, likely punish a player for after holding multiple enemies while his team came back from an early deficit and then dying compared to a player who, in the same scenario, died instantly. The benefit is that it would reward players who got kills in close rounds and situations more than players who stat padded at the ends of rounds.
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Offline BabyJesus

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #457 on: October 12, 2021, 03:43:14 pm »
How does CS calculate their player ratings? That would probably be a more accurate number

This rating was based on the number of kills per round, the survival rate of a player per round, and the amount of multikills a player got, which is known as the impact rating. The higher each of these values are, the higher rating a player would get.

That would be a lot of work
« Last Edit: October 12, 2021, 03:44:45 pm by BabyJesus »
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Online Dan the Seagull Chef

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #458 on: October 12, 2021, 03:55:37 pm »
what is my NW WN8 and efficiency rating? Also how does my WTR and PR factor in?
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Offline Fartknocker

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #459 on: October 13, 2021, 01:33:19 am »
what is my NW WN8 and efficiency rating? Also how does my WTR and PR factor in?

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Offline Theodin

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #460 on: October 13, 2021, 05:50:22 am »
Spoiler
I think if you're going to try to make a value added stat as opposed to another rate stat, you have to figure out the value of a kill, a death and a teamkill. WAR in baseball sort of works because SABR has sat down and figured out how many runs an offensive has to score and how many runs a defense has to . . . not allow? . . . to win a game in a given run environment. SABR figures that, in a 5 run per game environment, a batter needs to produce an extra 10 runs to be worth an extra win. I don't think that's the case for the draft leagues since, unlike baseball, we know exactly how many "points" we need to score to win a single round. In the case of the current league, is 6. I don't think we can easily, with any certainty, accurately assess preventing enemy kills, primarily because we don't track rounds in which a player played and did not die. Even with kills, we can't really do what baseball WAR does, because it ultimately constructs a run expectancy for a plate appearance and assigns every possible outcome a run value. We can't really count opportunities, so we have to basically overvalue opportunities taken to compensate for undervaluing opportunities missed.

I would guess that to set the replacement level, you would have to decide how set a stat line of the supposed replacement player, compare the value of kills and deaths to that replacement player. Again, assessing opportunity is the problem. The closest I can come up with is deaths. That is, set the replacement player's deaths to the player you're evaluating and multiply that by the replacement K/D to get the replacement kills, and you can get teamkills the same way. It's not ideal mainly because it doesn't sufficiently reward players who don't die. It may also be that just guessing for rounds played would be sufficient, especially if nobody is interested outside of the top 15 or 20 players anyway, because the only way top players miss rounds is if they miss the match entirely or their internet cuts out.

I also have absolutely no idea how first bloods factor in, partly because they don't play nicely in the formulas I was fiddling with, and in part because, as far as I know, we don't actually know exactly how valuable a first blood is.

A couple of leagues ago, when I had log access, I was tempted to try to calculate situational win probability. In a 5v3, how often does the team with 5 alive win, and how often the team with 3? If we had win rates for all the permutations of a draft league match, we could calculate kill win probably added. It would just be a matter of giving credit for the change in win expectancy to whoever got the kill and subtracting the same from the player who died. Of course, it would substitute for WAA more than WAR, and I have no idea without trying whether it'd be easier to generate a replacement player for that sort of thing. You'd also get a nice statistical phenomenon where the league would have a negative WPA, because it's possible to cost your own team win expectancy without any player on the other team earning any.

I ended up not doing it because it would have required more set up work than I was prepared to do. Most of the counting could be automated pretty easily, but it still would require extensive log edits to get something to feed into whatever is doing the counting. The resulting stat would still have its problems as well. It would, for example, likely punish a player for after holding multiple enemies while his team came back from an early deficit and then dying compared to a player who, in the same scenario, died instantly. The benefit is that it would reward players who got kills in close rounds and situations more than players who stat padded at the ends of rounds.
[close]
The first iteration of this was actually what you suggested - figuring out the average "replacement" level player and doing WAR minus average WAR. but you're right in all of this - in all of the conversations I had before or after releasing this the consistent topic has been that NW stats suffer from the fact that so little is actually tracked. I was actually thinking the other day about win probability stats, because that would certainly affect the value of a kill!

Also I have always been a vocal opponent of identifying true value with statistics in this game; it's on page 1!

How does CS calculate their player ratings? That would probably be a more accurate number

This rating was based on the number of kills per round, the survival rate of a player per round, and the amount of multikills a player got, which is known as the impact rating. The higher each of these values are, the higher rating a player would get.

That would be a lot of work
kpr is easy, survival rate could actually be determined, and multikills could be too
I could actually do this for a match or two

1x NA Duel- Runner up |  3x 3v3- 3rd place (Seadderol Deflatriots) (Ez Money) (71st Guards + Russian) | 1x Duel League- 4th place | 1x Regimental Groupfighting- 1st place (71st)  l  1x 2v2- 3rd Place (Vortex/Theodin) | TNWL Season 2 - 1st Place l 1x 2v2- 1st Place (Theodin/Elite) l 2x NANWL-
 71st, Nr8(LG) l 1x 4v4- 1st Place (RussianFury, Waste, NickCole, Theodin) l 1x Cav Joust- 2nd Place l 1x 4v4-
 3rd Place (Theodin, AsianP, Sleek, Godfried, Lurvy) l 1x 5v5 - 1st Place (RussianFury, Yoshie, Krastinov, Jorge, Theodin - Thanos and his children)

Offline Theodin

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #461 on: October 14, 2021, 06:17:39 am »
If you participated in at least 3 of these 4 leagues - the last 6v6 League, NWCL, NWGL, and NWDL Season 3 - I've calculated your WAR for each of those seasons and your average stats, including your average WAR. I chose those leagues since they're the only BO3 leagues we did I think?

Screenshots of those average WAR scores are in this post. If you want your scores for those leagues lemme know and I'll get you the data! Also if I missed your name pls tell me so I can get it in there!

Average WAR Scores from past 4 leagues

[close]

Here's also the top 10 highest WAR scores in those 4 leagues:
Spoiler
[close]
« Last Edit: October 14, 2021, 06:36:00 am by Theodin »

1x NA Duel- Runner up |  3x 3v3- 3rd place (Seadderol Deflatriots) (Ez Money) (71st Guards + Russian) | 1x Duel League- 4th place | 1x Regimental Groupfighting- 1st place (71st)  l  1x 2v2- 3rd Place (Vortex/Theodin) | TNWL Season 2 - 1st Place l 1x 2v2- 1st Place (Theodin/Elite) l 2x NANWL-
 71st, Nr8(LG) l 1x 4v4- 1st Place (RussianFury, Waste, NickCole, Theodin) l 1x Cav Joust- 2nd Place l 1x 4v4-
 3rd Place (Theodin, AsianP, Sleek, Godfried, Lurvy) l 1x 5v5 - 1st Place (RussianFury, Yoshie, Krastinov, Jorge, Theodin - Thanos and his children)

Online sidney crosby

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #462 on: October 14, 2021, 07:03:40 am »
always knew i was better than yoloswag LOL

Offline Wastee

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #463 on: October 14, 2021, 07:38:58 am »
always knew i was better than yoloswag LOL

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Offline Fartknocker

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Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« Reply #464 on: October 14, 2021, 10:57:59 am »
always knew i was better than yoloswag LOL

This is literally backed by statistical analysis. The numbers do not lie.
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