Author Topic: The General Political Thread  (Read 520252 times)

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Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4740 on: January 14, 2019, 07:09:29 pm »
Can they even do that at this point?

Is it legally possible? Yes, but even if it wasn't that doesn't matter. Plenty of illegal things happen in the EU so long as the political will is there.

Now in other news, as Germany heads into recession whilst Britain has the highest GDP growth of any major EU member state, I'd like to take this opportunity to gloat about how wrong Duuring's predictions of economic doom have turned out.  ;)
?
UK had lower gdp growth than Germany and France in 2018. You were probably looking at inflation rate. Plus UK is still a member of EU.

I understand the difference between GDP, inflation, PMI etc. I read investor briefings on a weekly (if not daily) basis for work. Go back and look at the figures again.

Offline Big Pete

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4741 on: January 14, 2019, 07:27:41 pm »
Can they even do that at this point?

Is it legally possible? Yes, but even if it wasn't that doesn't matter. Plenty of illegal things happen in the EU so long as the political will is there.

Now in other news, as Germany heads into recession whilst Britain has the highest GDP growth of any major EU member state, I'd like to take this opportunity to gloat about how wrong Duuring's predictions of economic doom have turned out.  ;)
?
UK had lower gdp growth than Germany and France in 2018. You were probably looking at inflation rate. Plus UK is still a member of EU.

I understand the difference between GDP, inflation, PMI etc. I read investor briefings on a weekly (if not daily) basis for work. Go back and look at the figures again.
Yep clearly says:
Germany 1.7
France 1.6
UK 1.3

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4742 on: January 14, 2019, 08:21:59 pm »
Pete, Q4 figures for 2018 haven't even been released yet. Where are you getting your information from?

Offline Big Pete

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4743 on: January 14, 2019, 08:53:22 pm »
Pete, Q4 figures for 2018 haven't even been released yet. Where are you getting your information from?
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Edit:
big link

Also it is not just German recession it is whole world if you haven't noticed. Untill Federal Reserve isn't killed this will keep repeating.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 10:42:37 pm by Big Pete »

Offline Riddlez

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4744 on: January 14, 2019, 10:22:00 pm »
This is for the second quarter in 2018
First quarter as compared to year before.
For 2017
total of 2018 and projections for 2019 and 2020

I really think you should read the briefings more carefully


That's EU, Statista and World Bank sources. The last one is the Guardian but really Steve?
Probably one of the very few old-timers here who hasn't been a regimental leader.

Offline Sgt.Winters

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4745 on: January 14, 2019, 11:01:06 pm »
Thank God Greece is projected to gain more than 1.0.

Offline Von Bergen

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4746 on: January 14, 2019, 11:09:59 pm »
Can they even do that at this point?

Is it legally possible? Yes, but even if it wasn't that doesn't matter. Plenty of illegal things happen in the EU so long as the political will is there.

Now in other news, as Germany heads into recession whilst Britain has the highest GDP growth of any major EU member state, I'd like to take this opportunity to gloat about how wrong Duuring's predictions of economic doom have turned out.  ;)
How the fuck are we heading into recession? And that the gross domestic product of a nation that is just about to isolate themself from the biggest (once again) domestic market is not any sign for a developing economy but just a sign that the british have reason enough to prepare their economy to be more self sustainable as they will lack ton of shit from markets they had access to before.


Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4747 on: January 15, 2019, 12:05:03 am »
I really think you should read the briefings more carefully

Riddlez you're selectively quoting quarters rather than looking at 2018 as a whole, then putting forward irrelevant projections for 2019/2020 which have already been proven wrong. For example that Guardian article is based on EU projections that have already been made to look ridiculous given recent economic news out of France and especially Germany. This is the published 2018 data thus far which show the UK is the fastest growing major EU economy:
Q1-UK 0.1%, GER 0.4%, FRA 0.2%, ITA 0.3%
Q2-UK 0.4%, GER 0.5%, FRA 0.2%, ITA 0.2%
Q3-UK 0.6%, GER -0.2%, FRA 0.3%, ITA -0.1%

Q4 is yet to be published but based on PMI data, business confidence surveys (etc) they all point to a second consecutive quarter of German economic contraction, which is the technical definition of a recession.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-europes-biggest-economy-is-in-danger-of-entering-a-technical-recession-2019-01-14

And Pete, that Goldman document is itself a forecast which shouldn't be taken as factual economic data. For example here's what they forecasted for Germany:
Quote
At -0.2%qoq, Q3 GDP growth was significantly weaker than we expected (before Euro area Q3 GDP had been published)...While growth has decelerated from last year’s 2.5%yoy pace, these two factors exaggerate the weakness in Q3 and point to a Q4 rebound

They acknowledged they got it wrong for Q3, made up some excuses as to why that was the case and then made a Q4 prediction that's now totally wrong too. You gonna trust their 2019 and 2020 predictions? Lol.

Offline Olafson

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4748 on: January 15, 2019, 05:12:12 am »
The only thing I trust in is my AR-15

Offline Olafson

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4749 on: January 15, 2019, 05:31:41 am »
Joke, I only own beautiful guns.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4750 on: January 15, 2019, 09:25:00 am »
I'm curious what happens to those numbers after no-deal Brexit.

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4751 on: January 15, 2019, 10:40:20 am »
I'm curious what happens to those numbers after no-deal Brexit.

It would push both sides into a recession, I'd imagine.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4752 on: January 15, 2019, 11:35:01 am »
I'd be amused if it wouldn't hurt the Dutch economy so much. That's kinda my whole feel with this thing. It would be fun to watch a country wreck itself, it's just that it will drag us down with it.

Is there any reliable economic model that predicts the British economy would grow after brexit?

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4753 on: January 15, 2019, 12:44:12 pm »
I'd be amused if it wouldn't hurt the Dutch economy so much. That's kinda my whole feel with this thing. It would be fun to watch a country wreck itself, it's just that it will drag us down with it.

Is there any reliable economic model that predicts the British economy would grow after brexit?

There's a few people who think it will, mainly Patrick Minford's grouping: https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/who-we-are/
Minford is quite famous for being an early backer of Thatcherism when most economists were strongly against it. He's often in the minority, and has often been proven right.

Then there's people like Ashoka Mody or Paul Krugman who think the effect will be very limited, with potentially some short term disruption thrown in. I tend to side more with Mody's analysis simply because his track record on EU economics has been pretty good. I think Brexit means a slight drag on UK GDP growth in the short term, almost certainly some disruption in Q2/Q3 of 2019 and that'll be about it. Predictions of -10% or whatever are just silly.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4754 on: January 15, 2019, 03:30:25 pm »
We'll see.

Edit: Yikes
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 04:17:07 pm by Duuring »