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Messages - Xethos

Pages: 1 2 3 ... 44
1
The Mess Hall / Re: Theodin's Book of Melee
« on: October 12, 2021, 02:59:00 pm »
I think if you're going to try to make a value added stat as opposed to another rate stat, you have to figure out the value of a kill, a death and a teamkill. WAR in baseball sort of works because SABR has sat down and figured out how many runs an offensive has to score and how many runs a defense has to . . . not allow? . . . to win a game in a given run environment. SABR figures that, in a 5 run per game environment, a batter needs to produce an extra 10 runs to be worth an extra win. I don't think that's the case for the draft leagues since, unlike baseball, we know exactly how many "points" we need to score to win a single round. In the case of the current league, is 6. I don't think we can easily, with any certainty, accurately assess preventing enemy kills, primarily because we don't track rounds in which a player played and did not die. Even with kills, we can't really do what baseball WAR does, because it ultimately constructs a run expectancy for a plate appearance and assigns every possible outcome a run value. We can't really count opportunities, so we have to basically overvalue opportunities taken to compensate for undervaluing opportunities missed.

I would guess that to set the replacement level, you would have to decide how set a stat line of the supposed replacement player, compare the value of kills and deaths to that replacement player. Again, assessing opportunity is the problem. The closest I can come up with is deaths. That is, set the replacement player's deaths to the player you're evaluating and multiply that by the replacement K/D to get the replacement kills, and you can get teamkills the same way. It's not ideal mainly because it doesn't sufficiently reward players who don't die. It may also be that just guessing for rounds played would be sufficient, especially if nobody is interested outside of the top 15 or 20 players anyway, because the only way top players miss rounds is if they miss the match entirely or their internet cuts out.

I also have absolutely no idea how first bloods factor in, partly because they don't play nicely in the formulas I was fiddling with, and in part because, as far as I know, we don't actually know exactly how valuable a first blood is.

A couple of leagues ago, when I had log access, I was tempted to try to calculate situational win probability. In a 5v3, how often does the team with 5 alive win, and how often the team with 3? If we had win rates for all the permutations of a draft league match, we could calculate kill win probably added. It would just be a matter of giving credit for the change in win expectancy to whoever got the kill and subtracting the same from the player who died. Of course, it would substitute for WAA more than WAR, and I have no idea without trying whether it'd be easier to generate a replacement player for that sort of thing. You'd also get a nice statistical phenomenon where the league would have a negative WPA, because it's possible to cost your own team win expectancy without any player on the other team earning any.

I ended up not doing it because it would have required more set up work than I was prepared to do. Most of the counting could be automated pretty easily, but it still would require extensive log edits to get something to feed into whatever is doing the counting. The resulting stat would still have its problems as well. It would, for example, likely punish a player for after holding multiple enemies while his team came back from an early deficit and then dying compared to a player who, in the same scenario, died instantly. The benefit is that it would reward players who got kills in close rounds and situations more than players who stat padded at the ends of rounds.

2
Regiments / Re: 84th Regiment of Foot (Royal Highland Emigrants) NA
« on: September 17, 2021, 03:20:01 am »
We doing this again? Xethos is quick man better watch out


3
The Mess Hall / Re: NA All-Time Duelists/Groupfighters*UPDATE*
« on: August 16, 2021, 07:27:09 am »
2015 players were better, because when they had a 50 page argument, they didn't need to break the fucking forums

4
The Mess Hall / Re: NA All-Time Duelists/Groupfighters*UPDATE*
« on: August 13, 2021, 01:21:12 pm »
isn't this list finished now? the only one not filled is cavalry but i don't think there a single cav player left in nw

 >:(

5
Events: NA / Re: NickyJ's Corrupt Friday Linebattle
« on: August 06, 2021, 01:00:07 am »
Oprichnik cav. If full, arty.

6
Name: Xethos
GUID: 440789
Do you want to be a captain?: No
Do you accept and agree to all of the rules?: Yes

Never know when somebody might need forfeit insurance in September

7
Events: NA / Re: NickyJ's Corrupt Friday Linebattle
« on: May 21, 2021, 01:06:06 am »
4eme cav ok great

Or skirms, I guess

8
Events: NA / Re: NickyJ's Corrupt Friday Linebattle
« on: May 15, 2021, 03:29:12 am »
I had my holy hand grenades set to target relevant people only, which was the actual arty guy and the commander. bdof was an FOL, which was separate. I forgot you were even standing there.

9
First of all, fuck you

Yes, this is how you negotiated the scheduling issues too, which was actually part of the problem.

10
The Round 12 Nittany Lions versus Cringe Management match will not take place. The match will go down as a 0-0 tie.

As an interested party, Risk recused himself completely from scoring it.

Detailed explanation for aggrieved parties
The amount of theater that went on for this is ridiculous. There was every possibility this match could have been played, and the fact that sufficient effort was not taken to ensure it was is an insult to the captains who managed to schedule and play all twelve of their matches.

There were three main issues:

1) There was no recorded attempt by either captain until very late Friday night/early Saturday morning to schedule the match.

2) During that abbreviated scheduling attempt, one team stated it could play Saturday; the other could only play Sunday.

3) The team that stated it could not play Sunday could, in fact, very likely have played Sunday, but failed to understand this until after the point at which the teams could have been reasonably expected to play; its commitment to failing to understand this likely contributed to their inability to play it.

The charade that took place all afternoon and evening is embarrassing, and everybody who participated in it should be ashamed that they took more time to do it than it would have taken to play the match. Further, some of the messages that passed between various interested parties were absolutely unacceptable, as was one captain's repeated insistence that we follow a rule that does not actually exist.

Nevertheless, the issues that happened Sunday were incidental to the fact that there was no earlier documented effort to schedule the match. Day-of and day-before scheduling has been acceptable for most of the league because there was another week to push it back to. There is no more next week, and sufficient measures—measures such as sending any messages before the small hours of Saturday morning—were not taken to account for that.

Lastly, moving forward, this is your reminder that rules #29 and #34 do still exist, regardless of whether you believe your opponent is negotiating in bad faith, or how much mental energy you've expended. There were other conceivable solutions to this than forcing the moderator to arbitrate who got the better seed that were written off by bile, sloth, and choler.
[close]

Playoffs begin this week. Barring another internet shutdown or a gym accident, Risk will post the bracket some time today. Our thanks to everybody for getting 41 of the matches in on time. There are no extensions planned for playoff matches, so let's not make mistakes with those and get them scheduled early enough to plan around.

Congratulation to the playoff teams and good luck moving forward!

11
The entire Prussian Army. If I couldn't do that, the pubs. Gloria per motum.

12
You ever just get on the forums to watch two goldfish argue over who forgot to admin more?

13
New spreadsheet alert. There's a bit of function over form going on here and a whole lot of jank under the hood, but this is now up and working. If there's something you want to see added, send me a message. I'm more likely to do it if I don't have to count more things.

Also send me a message if you're a quasi reliable person and want to save me or Risk the ten seconds it takes to update it.

14
Community / Re: NW Community - Where are they now???
« on: April 05, 2021, 04:25:11 am »
im here!

I miss being asked on NA1 why I left the 3eVolt by people who couldn't read past "Xe" :(

15
The Mess Hall / Re: Baseball Thread
« on: April 03, 2021, 05:21:31 am »
I watched the Blue Jays-Yankees opening day game. It was kind of sad, there were three or four errors that the official scorer called hits. Biggio looked like he was not comfortable with the long throws.

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