Canadian election szn!
LPC started out with a decent chance of a majority but a week into the campaign they've not run a good one so far, while the CPC has rolled out some popular policy proposals
Latest projections have the Liberals winning another minority but with less seats - due in large part to a more competitive CPC than last time and a more stable NDP
Popular vote has tightened in the past few days with the CPC and LPC running at basically a dead heat
Bloc facing some serious questions in whether they can repeat last election's success in Quebec
Green party imploding and the PPC not a serious threat
Gonna be an interesting one! You can check out the polls and projections at 338canada.com
I'd be weary of tracking polls using just 338, they absolutely botched the NS election, PC-NS had a 13% chance of a minority and wound up with a firm majority. They also had NL Libs winning a sweeping majority back in March, when in reality they gained a single seat (although the election being fucked up by the third wave of COVID may have factored in).
Tories have been doing a good job at marketing O'Toole for name recognition and he isn't as controversial as Scheer, if they can turn that into more BC, ATL, and GTA seats they may have a shot a a minority gov't. Had my man MacKay been leader I'd say that win would be a guarantee.
Only Liberal shot at a majority imo is if they can win Quebec and maybe a few urban seats out west.
The death of the Greens since May stepped down might return enough seats back to the NDP to keep Jagmeet around.
My overall prediction is a Lib min, Trudeau pulls a Mulroney and hands a shitfest to Freeland come next election. All other parties vapourize their leadership (Except for Bernier, who is gunned down by the dairy cartel).