What’s the likelihood that trade to the US increases to the extent that it replaces the majority of our EU trade? Because right now we trade more with them than with the rest of the world combined (exports and imports). I’m no trade expert but what are the odds of a seismic shift in where we export our goods to? Genuinely curious btw not trying to disagree
We do not trade with the EU more than the rest of the world combined, and that hasn't been the case since 2008. Our EU exports, as a percentage of overall exports, peaked in 1990 and have been in a downward trend since:
This has occurred at the same time as several big waves of EU expansion, you can see that second peak for 2004 when Poland etc joined, so you would have expected an overall increase (though China opened up at the same time so that explains part, but not all, of the decrease).
Seismic shifts in British trade have occurred, particularly as a result of EU membership.
-In 1960 the UK's largest export markets in order of size were USA, Australia, Canada, Germany and South Africa. The Commonwealth accounted for around a third of our exports and imports.
-In 2011 it was Germany, USA, Netherlands, France and Switzerland. The Commonwealth accounted for only around 10% of UK imports and exports.
I think it will be very dependent on if we end up with tariff free trade with the EU
Tariffs are a minor issue in modern trade, although granted they've become a lot more significant under Trump. It's mostly about regulation and trade infrastructure these days. For instance Liberia may have tariff free trade with the EU as a result of 'Everything But Arms' but if they can't prove they conform to EU standards and SPS regulations, obtain export licenses and associated paperwork, ensure the non-contamination of supply chains and cut out food fraud, get the product to market in the first place (African roads and ports are notoriously terrible), afford port fees and shipping costs etc then the removal of a tariff doesn't really matter.