Author Topic: The General Political Thread  (Read 528601 times)

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Offline Theodin

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2760 on: March 30, 2018, 05:07:43 pm »
I mean, good.
How is that good?
Turkey won’t risk war with France, and the west owes the Kurds some protection
Maybe. Maybe not. But that’s a big bluff for France to call
It’s a good one to call. I’m a realist but I’m an idealist for the Kurds

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Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2761 on: March 30, 2018, 06:00:52 pm »
France is a pretty active militairy player anyway, much more then people tend to give it credit. It's no stranger to unilateral action.

I guess it's also worth to remember that the Syrian Democratic Forces=/=the Kurds. Whole bunch of etnicities in there, even if the YPG/YJG dominates it.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2018, 06:14:50 pm by Duuring »

Offline Theodin

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2762 on: March 30, 2018, 06:25:04 pm »
France is a pretty active militairy player anyway, much more then people tend to give it credit. It's no stranger to unilateral action.

I guess it's also worth to remember that the Syrian Democratic Forces=/=the Kurds. Whole bunch of etnicities in there, even if the YPG/YJG dominates it.
True. It's always a mess in Syria. Still think it's worth it tho

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Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2763 on: March 30, 2018, 07:29:45 pm »
Yes and no. It further digs into Erdogan's 'everybody is against us'-frame. For many Turks, this will look like France sending soldiers and tanks to protect terorrists they mostly consider even worse then IS. It's a whole step further from 'just' supporting them with weapons, instruction and air-strikes. At the same time, it's good that Turkish military adventure gets checked and without a doubt it's saving lives on the ground.

I honestly don't know what's next with Syria. Assad has kinda won and at the same time kinda lost because his regime is completely dependent on foreign support. I don't see that changing anytime soon, meaning he's stuck in the Russia/Iran corner entirely. And those countries may force peace upon him to plug the drain on money and resources that Syria has become. Of course, that means that nobody who cares about rule of law or democracy or just basic human rights will get anything to say at the negotation table, but at least people will stop dying.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2018, 07:33:07 pm by Duuring »

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2764 on: March 30, 2018, 08:41:59 pm »
What's next is the Kurdish question. I don't think that can be put back in the box anytime soon and it'll be the next phase of the conflict.

It's intensely complicated, and there's good arguments for intervening, but personally I don't think the West has the stomach to prevent the Kurds being crushed. It'd probably require Turkey out of NATO and could quite easily spill out from being a proxy war to one involving Western boots on the ground in large numbers. Public opinion won't allow them to go that far, and the Pentagon has probably calculated that merely arming the Kurds with weapons and military advisors won't be enough to beat a coalition of Iran/Iraq/Turkey/Syria/Russia. Safest bet is to keep out, try and prevent a slaughter using diplomatic channels but ultimately if it happens there's little they'll be able to do. No point losing Turkey and what little influence they have left in Baghdad, whilst also getting dragged into an expensive war, simply for the sake of an independent Kurdistan.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2765 on: April 01, 2018, 11:34:23 am »
The Kurds in Syria don't want an independent Kurdistan. Their goal always has been autonomy in a decentralized Syria.

Offline Theodin

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2766 on: April 01, 2018, 05:49:49 pm »
The Kurds in Syria don't want an independent Kurdistan. Their goal always has been autonomy in a decentralized Syria.

Would they settle for independence if no one wanted a decentralized Syria?

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Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2767 on: April 01, 2018, 05:58:43 pm »
No, because they are fully aware that is a imposibble scenario. They can't hope to defeat Assad in the long run and even if they would, Turkey would never accept their existance. They barely respect Syrian soevereignity as it is; a break-away region would just get invaded straight away.

The YPG, later the SDF, and Assad never actually really fought eachother, and they have nothing to gain by starting. Assad is more likely to accept autonomy over a few regions not important to anyone in strategic or economic terms. Especially as he can just take away that autonomy in a few years anyway.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2018, 06:01:37 pm by Duuring »

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2768 on: April 01, 2018, 06:01:46 pm »
The Kurds in Syria don't want an independent Kurdistan. Their goal always has been autonomy in a decentralized Syria.

Short-term perhaps, but obviously long-term they want an independent Kurdistan. It's a gradualist approach. The Kurds in Iraq on the other hand want independence ASAP. If the latter gets it I'm not sure the Syrian Kurds will settle merely for enhanced autonomy.

Also Erdogan has reacted to Macron's announcement in his usual style: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-31/turkey-says-france-could-become-target-for-backing-syria-kurds/9607004

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2769 on: April 01, 2018, 06:04:48 pm »
Quote
If the latter gets it

Which it clearly will not.

Quote
I'm not sure the Syrian Kurds will settle merely for enhanced autonomy.

They don't have a choice.

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2770 on: April 01, 2018, 06:23:29 pm »
Quote
If the latter gets it

Which it clearly will not.

You wanna bet? With the appointment of John Bolton you can expect US policy to become much more overtly pro-Kurd.
http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/4ce786cb-4ae1-420f-bcea-e1dd84d180a5

Offline Toffee

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2771 on: April 01, 2018, 06:25:23 pm »
But the only way the US would get it's way would be to put boots on the ground, which they won't.

Offline StevenChilton

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2772 on: April 01, 2018, 06:51:02 pm »
But the only way the US would get it's way would be to put boots on the ground, which they won't.

Probably, but I wouldn't want to bet on it. Trump is hard to predict and easily led by his advisers while Bolton is very pro-war. Depends also if it turns into a proxy-war with Iran in which case the US (egged on by Saudi Arabia and Israel) may be more willing to commit.

Bolton is obsessed with US 'empire' in the Middle East. This is unfinished business from when he was advising Bush Jnr. Obama lost that chunk of the empire when he refused to enforce his 'red line' against Assad (biggest US blunder since 2003) and as a result Washington lost a great deal of influence everywhere from Ankara to Baghdad. Whoever got Bolton appointed knows what they're doing.

Offline Duuring

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2773 on: April 01, 2018, 08:28:08 pm »
USA's policy is already overtly pro-kurd. Which is why they are opposed to its independence, which will lead to only more instability in the region. They didn't do shit when Iraq took back control over the border regions, and just because Trump got a new advisor doesn't actually mean he's going to listen to him.

Offline Furrnox

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Re: The General Political Thread - Brexit poll (#FSEXIT)
« Reply #2774 on: April 01, 2018, 09:57:14 pm »
No, because they are fully aware that is a imposibble scenario. They can't hope to defeat Assad in the long run and even if they would, Turkey would never accept their existance. They barely respect Syrian soevereignity as it is; a break-away region would just get invaded straight away.

The YPG, later the SDF, and Assad never actually really fought eachother, and they have nothing to gain by starting. Assad is more likely to accept autonomy over a few regions not important to anyone in strategic or economic terms. Especially as he can just take away that autonomy in a few years anyway.

They will probably push for what the Kurds in Iraq have their own military thereby protecting their autonomy.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2018, 09:59:54 pm by Furrnox »