Germans almost had the aerial control, only the decision to bomb cities instead of RAF and the industry corrupted that.
I think the fact that the Luftwaffe was constantly outmatched by the RAF and Commonwealth air-forces might played some role. That the Germans lost significantly more aircraft and suffered over 5 times the number of human casualties as the allies can't be solely attributed their decision to focus on terror bombings and attacks on industry. I seriously doubt the Germans could have done anything to gain air superiority.
I don't think any real historian believes that even with air superiority the Germans could have beaten the Royal Navy, and the invasion would have been impossible with the Royal Navy in the channel. Even discounting the Royal Navy, the Germans couldn't have possible launched an Overlord like naval invasion. It proved damned near impossible for the greatest naval powers in the world---Overlord just barely worked, and that's with the vastly superior logistics the allies had.
Several high-ranking German officers, including Field Marshal von Rundstedt, said that the invasion was never seriously thought possible and the preparations were mainly to scare the British into accepting peace terms.
Even if they could launch an invasion and keep it supplied, there's no guarantee they'd win. A look at the rest of the war will tell you that the Commonwealth usually beat the Germans in a stand up fight.