Author Topic: The General Political Thread  (Read 520135 times)

0 Members and 5 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline StevenChilton

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 1882
    • View Profile
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4875 on: February 01, 2019, 10:02:40 pm »
Actually a lot of the grandfathered deals will still be messed up and need renegotiating, as for example things which are made "in the EU" no longer includes the UK, so various products will no longer be under FTA as I understand it. There's also lots of altering of very minor text, but when you consider that the EU-ROK deal is over 1400 pages on it's own, it adds up. Not to mention ROK now see the UK as an equal in size, compared to negotiating with the EU, US etc and want more concessions.
I'm sure it'll all get sorted out, but many trade deals are not actually ready for B-Day yet.

It's very difficult but far from impossible. Remainer media likes to talk shit about the Dept for International Trade (mainly because Liam Fox is leading it) but it's done some really impressive work. For example the most complicated trade deal ever signed in history was between the EU and Switzerland, and they announced around Christmas that they'd managed to roll it over in time for Brexit.

Sure, the UK loses negotiating power when it comes to market size but at the same time it gains flexibility as it's no longer bound by the interests of the other EU27. You can go much further on services in return for opening up to agriculture or textiles for example, which also reduces costs on shop shelves in the UK. It's a win-win, whereas currently we're bound by Spanish, Italian and especially French agricultural interests.

Idk where you're getting this whole thing about onshoring from, as the trend so far seems very firmly the other way around. I'm curious as to what length of time you believe medium to long term to mean, roughly speaking.

I mostly deal with the food and drink sector. As a result of Brexit we've seen UK firms rapidly increase market share within the British market at the expense of EU27. Two examples so you can see what I mean:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41233255
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/brexit/fermanaghbased-egg-firm-planning-for-hard-brexit-37361470.html

And here's Robert Peston confirming what's happening from Davos of all places: https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1087763485184966657

It's partly due to the £ becoming more competitive, but mainly because of trade substitution. We already have industry bodies from Spain to Ireland sounding the alarm about what's happening.

Quote
Paul Kelly, Ibec’s director for the food and drink industry, warned that the imposition of tariff barriers could force some Irish businesses to transfer their activities to the UK market, resulting in job losses here. He also pointed out that 80 per cent of agri-food jobs were in the regions, meaning that “already economically disadvantaged areas will become more disadvantaged”.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/unions-say-eu-must-protect-rural-areas-and-food-sector-from-brexit-1.3048901



Offline MrTiki

  • Former Moderator
  • *
  • Posts: 3079
  • Senior Madmin EU
    • View Profile
  • Nick: MrTiki
  • Side: Neutral
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4876 on: February 02, 2019, 04:07:35 pm »
The only thing that shows is that it's more difficult for EU based companies to trade in post-Brexit Britain, which was already obvious. Companies are leaving the UK as it's less attractive. That's not really onshoring so much as filling a gap in the market created by companies leaving.
All that means is less competition and a more isolationist market, which most people agree is not a good thing for consumers. Brits will lose their jobs with EU companies and move to work at British companies, which just equals loss of earnings and uncertainty for them, also not great. And that's assuming best case smooth transition and picking up the slack in production left behind.

Personally I don't give a shit where a given company I buy from is based, I want the best quality goods provided at the lowest cost.

Offline Furrnox

  • Lieutenant General
  • ***
  • Posts: 7983
  • Eternally incorrect, centre-left, asshole.
    • View Profile
  • Side: Neutral
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4877 on: February 02, 2019, 04:53:58 pm »
The only thing that shows is that it's more difficult for EU based companies to trade in post-Brexit Britain, which was already obvious. Companies are leaving the UK as it's less attractive. That's not really onshoring so much as filling a gap in the market created by companies leaving.
All that means is less competition and a more isolationist market, which most people agree is not a good thing for consumers. Brits will lose their jobs with EU companies and move to work at British companies, which just equals loss of earnings and uncertainty for them, also not great. And that's assuming best case smooth transition and picking up the slack in production left behind.

Personally I don't give a shit where a given company I buy from is based, I want the best quality goods provided at the lowest cost.

And that's why China will be number one in about a decade.

Offline StevenChilton

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 1882
    • View Profile
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4878 on: February 02, 2019, 05:02:41 pm »
Companies aren't leaving, they're just having their exports squeezed by stronger local competition. You can't afford to pull out of the 2nd largest economy in Europe. What's happening is a significant amount of onshoring of supply chains in the food and drink sector. Ironically for all this talk of the border, it's NI than's benefiting most from Brexit thus far since it has the largest agricultural sector in the UK.

Does that mean less competition? Yes and no. Global agriculture is extremely protectionist anyway because voters have a romantic view about the rural economy and farmers are extremely good lobbyists. EU farming subsidies are more generous than anywhere else in the world (which every EU citizen pays for at the supermarket checkout) and French farmers riot all the time whenever that's threatened. There's also a natural ceiling in prices anyway due to how competitive the UK grocery market is.

It's like this: the UK imports most of its food. Makes sense to to buy it off poor Africans for bargain prices in return for services access rather than expensive stuff from the greedy French.

Offline Big Pete

  • Private
  • *
  • Posts: 49
    • View Profile
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4879 on: February 02, 2019, 07:15:08 pm »
To be clear, I just enjoy coming on here to debate political stuff while we all wait for BCoF.


Offline Olafson

  • FSE Developer
  • ****
  • Posts: 3995
  • #friendsforever
    • View Profile
  • Nick: FSE_Olafson
  • Side: Union
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4880 on: February 02, 2019, 10:09:54 pm »
BCoF is a Hoax

Offline Big Pete

  • Private
  • *
  • Posts: 49
    • View Profile
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4881 on: February 02, 2019, 10:41:55 pm »

Offline Riddlez

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 4845
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Riddlez
  • Side: Neutral
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4882 on: February 03, 2019, 08:16:01 pm »
@corporate lawyer: an actual question out of interest. You know more about this than I do obviously. My international relations lecturer said that because of the integration of European Law into Great-Britain's day-to-day business, it will be a near-impossible feat to turn all of that European Law into National Law upon a hard Brexit. He didn't say it couldn't be done, but he mostly expressed his annoyance over Pro-Brexit politicians 'Failing to do their homework and thereby not knowing what they are getting into.'

Care to comment? Literally I have zero point of reference to judge this by. Maybe you can shed some light upon this.

Also, Steve, I do enjoy these diuscussions too. We rarely agree on anything but it helps me getting some across-the-aisle opinions. This thread has moved away from shit-talking lately so it's refreshing really.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2019, 08:17:37 pm by Riddlez »
Probably one of the very few old-timers here who hasn't been a regimental leader.

Offline StevenChilton

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 1882
    • View Profile
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4883 on: February 03, 2019, 10:53:38 pm »
Hmmm I'm not a constitutional lawyer and it's a very specialist area, but I can give a few general points. From what I understand it is a very difficult process because EU law is highly centralised and much of it has direct effect. So it's not simply a case of copy/paste the entire body of the EU acquis onto UK books but rather having to re-write most of it to give effect to UK institutions rather than EU ones. It's not *that* complicated but it is very time-consuming. To give a rough idea of how much there is to get through:

It's a big task but one that should be delivered on schedule. We're not staying in the EEA (whereby we'd automatically retain c.20% of the EU acquis) so I'm assuming the difficulty of the job isn't really affected by a 'no deal' Brexit. We're still repatriating 100% of EU law whether it's 'no deal' or May's deal.

We're also not converting all of it (big chunks like the Charter of Fundamental Rights are being left out). In the long term ECJ case law will still apply post-Brexit when it comes to interpreting the relevant legislation and it'll be a case of future parliaments gradually working through what to keep and what to get rid of.

Offline Riddlez

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 4845
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Riddlez
  • Side: Neutral
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4884 on: February 03, 2019, 11:28:52 pm »
Wouldn't that create a significant period of uncertainty with a lot of hiatuses?
Probably one of the very few old-timers here who hasn't been a regimental leader.

Offline StevenChilton

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 1882
    • View Profile
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4885 on: February 04, 2019, 12:31:28 am »
How so?

Offline Riddlez

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 4845
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Riddlez
  • Side: Neutral
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4886 on: February 04, 2019, 01:29:15 pm »
Well EU law would no longer be in effect but there wouldnt yet be an update from the British side.

OR am I completely misunderstanding this process?
Probably one of the very few old-timers here who hasn't been a regimental leader.

Offline StevenChilton

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 1882
    • View Profile
  • Side: Confederacy
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4887 on: February 04, 2019, 05:03:10 pm »
Not sure I understand. If EU laws have been fully repatriated by Brexit day then there shouldn't be any hiatus.

Offline Fartknocker

  • Major
  • *
  • Posts: 3840
    • View Profile
  • Nick: Fartknocker
  • Side: Neutral
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4888 on: February 04, 2019, 06:13:20 pm »
21 was a spy the whole time... This is an act of war
63e pawn in an anti-63e world.

Offline Steinmann

  • King of Börk
  • Brigadier General
  • *
  • Posts: 7170
  • Mutual Owning with Elsse.
    • View Profile
  • Side: Neutral
Re: The General Political Thread
« Reply #4889 on: February 05, 2019, 02:14:46 am »
Jude