I think Fillon is going to win the second round of the primary-he got over 40% in the first round and Sarkozy has endorsed him, so I can't see Juppe in with much of a chance. Le Pen will probably win the first round of the general, so I think the main thing here is a) by how much she wins, and b) who comes second.
It's also incredible that Merkel is standing for a fourth term as Chancellor, mainly because her own MPs are saying there's nobody else within the party who has the standing to take over. Likewise she has no serious rival in the opposition parties either. Really quite bizarre that a woman who's been in office since 2005 has no opponent in a nation of 80 million people-either she's the luckiest politician alive or at the very least she's purged/sidelined potential challengers within her own party (in that sense putting a 74 year old, wheelchair-bound cripple in as finance minister was a smart move).