I think Fillon is going to win the second round of the primary-he got over 40% in the first round and Sarkozy has endorsed him, so I can't see Juppe in with much of a chance. Le Pen will probably win the first round of the general, so I think the main thing here is a) by how much she wins, and b) who comes second.
It's also incredible that Merkel is standing for a fourth term as Chancellor, mainly because her own MPs are saying there's nobody else within the party who has the standing to take over. Likewise she has no serious rival in the opposition parties either. Really quite bizarre that a woman who's been in office since 2005 has no opponent in a nation of 80 million people-either she's the luckiest politician alive or at the very least she's purged/sidelined potential challengers within her own party (in that sense putting a 74 year old, wheelchair-bound cripple in as finance minister was a smart move).
I see no reason to switch from Merkel anyway. I think she has been doing very well, and if she wants to continue working as Chancellor I am more than happy to see her elected again. Sure I do not agree with all she is doing, but overall she is doing a pretty good job. Equally, I think the "74 year old, wheelchair-bound cripple" did a very good job. I do not agree with the choices they have made for the all of the ministers (I do not like the defence minster at all) but its fine.
Turkey now has 2+ million(actual number is closer to 4 million) Syrian refugees. Why is US so reluctant to accept a small fraction of that given that its as large as entire fucking Europe.
Maybe its because Turkey is wheeling toward being an islamic theocracy again? Or because a huge portion of those that have flooded into europe are economic migrants masquerading as refugees and/or not even from Syria? Or because it would be incredibly simple to sneak through even the tightest screening procedures coming from a failed state with no verifiable documents (and ISIS has already claimed they are doing so - and it is confirmed they have done so already in attacks)? Or because even logistically speaking it is no small endeavour to move tens of thousands of people halfway around the world then disperse and resettle them (whereas turkey is walkable/drivable from much of syria)?
If a country is allowing economic migrants to stay, it is its own fault. Obviously there are economic migrants. There have always been and always will be. But it does not mean that you have to keep them. For example, in Germany you are not allowed to stay if you are an economic migrant. You are send back.
Also, a huge portion of Syrian refugees are economic migrants? How so? As far as I know there is a war going on in Syria. Additionally, you do not have to be from Syria to apply for asylum... There are enough countries in this world that have problems with political persecution, religious persecution etc.
I thought he was going to 'drain the swamp' ?
I feel bad for the poorer regions of the United Kingdom who thrived on European subsidies. I doubt the Conservatives are going to make up the difference.
Nice try, but EU regional funds are worth £700 million a year to the UK on average...that's peanuts considering the UK's annual budget is some £760 billion, and because it's so tiny the Conservatives have already said they'd match it.
Its actually worth £732 million a year. (That is less developed regions only. The UK also receives money for more developed regions which would bring it to a 1.78 Billion a year) Also, who says that the Uk government is actually going to give that money to the regions, in the same proportions? For all we know, exiting the EU quickly would mean that they would have to quickly change their whole budget plan and try to match the EU funding. There are 4 possible outcomes.
1.) The UK manages to match the funding in time.
2.) The UK manages to match the funding, but it needs more time, meaning that the regions are going to be without funding for as long as the UK needs to change their budget.
3.) The UK spends the money on something else and the regions are screwed.
4.) The UK spends less/more money on the regions.
Spoiler
Le Pen is nothing but a homophobic collarborator-in-waiting funded by Putin.
Before we have the French and German elections, there will be parliamentary elections in my country on March the 15th, which will probably be seen as an indicator for the outcome of the German and French elections. Polls show a very splintered result. A three-party centre-right coalition or a four to five-party centre-left coalition are the most likely outcomes. Nobody has much faith in Dutch Trump Wilders.
I don't see what Le Pens stance on gay marriage has to do with this. I think Brexit and the election of President Elect Donald J Trump are a watershed moment for the world; this is why I believe the elections in France and Germany will lead to the end of the broken and the corrupt European Union. Reflected in the words of Donald Trump "The nation-state remains the true foundation for happiness and harmony." the dangerous dream of a United States of Europe is coming to and end.
Well, "unexperienced" leaders mean that they will give the politics a new point of view, meaning that it's not necessarily a bad thing. The idea of a European superstate is good in theory, but it would never work in practice, such as the great theory of Communism. There are just far too many differences between European nations to make one superstate work. And to be honest, I don't think the European Union will survive much longer. The rise of Euroscepticism throughout Europe will probably result in many more states leaving the union, and I don't think that it's a bad thing. It's rather positive in my opinion.
I see no reason for a gazillion of different countries, with different laws, currency etc. It just complicates things without the need to do so. Culture is not a problem, because who says that you can not have different culture in different regions? The laws can still apply to both regions. It is not like the tax laws in Sweden have to be different than the tax laws in Spain.
Another thing the EU does is to get the "differences between European nations" smaller. It is there to close the gap.
The point of the EU, as far as I always understood it, is to communicate and help each other on the short term and on the long term to create a more unified EU. It takes time, but this is what it is doing. It is boosting the poorer regions of the EU to come up to match the other regions. Basically it is trying to get all countries within the EU to the same level. Ofc. that means that more wealthy countries have to spend more money on less wealthy countries. But in the end everyone is going to profit from it. Equally, EU laws are slowly unifying the countries (get the same moral standards), so that the laws of all the member states will start to match more and more.
It is a long process, but I see no reason for an "EU Superstate" to fail. It is something I support.
With Fillon's victory, fascist Le Pen's chances have dramatically increased.
Good. Frexit will be the death blow.
France has absolutely nothing to gain from leaving the EU.
Spoiler
Spoiler
Le Pen is nothing but a homophobic collarborator-in-waiting funded by Putin.
Before we have the French and German elections, there will be parliamentary elections in my country on March the 15th, which will probably be seen as an indicator for the outcome of the German and French elections. Polls show a very splintered result. A three-party centre-right coalition or a four to five-party centre-left coalition are the most likely outcomes. Nobody has much faith in Dutch Trump Wilders.
I don't see what Le Pens stance on gay marriage has to do with this. I think Brexit and the election of President Elect Donald J Trump are a watershed moment for the world; this is why I believe the elections in France and Germany will lead to the end of the broken and the corrupt European Union. Reflected in the words of Donald Trump "The nation-state remains the true foundation for happiness and harmony." the dangerous dream of a United States of Europe is coming to and end.
Well, "unexperienced" leaders mean that they will give the politics a new point of view, meaning that it's not necessarily a bad thing. The idea of a European superstate is good in theory, but it would never work in practice, such as the great theory of Communism. There are just far too many differences between European nations to make one superstate work. And to be honest, I don't think the European Union will survive much longer. The rise of Euroscepticism throughout Europe will probably result in many more states leaving the union, and I don't think that it's a bad thing. It's rather positive in my opinion.
I'm going to have to disagree yes a euro-superstate is not going to work in practice but I do believe after a hard brexit, most EU countries will be deterred from leaving and it will only cause the EU to "gang up" on the UK and effectively, weaken the country as a whole. Depending on the latest european countries elections we could see the UK becoming horribly insignificant as its trade deals, and EU subsidies abruptly stop.
You have Le Pen in France working to get them out of the EU, you have the Bulgarian guy who just got elected (whom I don't remember the name of) who is anti-EU and who wishes to have a closer relationship with Russia instead of the EU. I'm sure the UK will work out a trade deal with the European Union, but at this moment it's just speculations. If I remember correctly, May said that she planned on triggering the article next spring. We'll see how it goes. I'm looking at it positively and I believe that it'll go well for the UK.
A trade deal would not make sense. The UK is exporting less and less into the EU, (I think it fell to 42-44% of all exports (UK) earlier this year.) while imports from the EU stayed stable at 54% of all imports (UK). Therefore the UK is more reliant on the EU than the other way around.
A large portion of exports from the UK is also in the field of services. If the UK were to leave the EU, it would probably make more sense for the companies offering these services to relocate.
