World Politics Thread - Round 2

[Riddlez]

Which is such a stupid rule.

It is though. Still. It most likely won them seats.

[Duuring]

It makes them a very rich party that is able to fund large-scaled campaigns all the time. Which wins them seats, I guess. Even though they're doing quite bad in the polls.

[Riddlez]

It makes them a very rich party that is able to fund large-scaled campaigns all the time. Which wins them seats, I guess. Even though they're doing quite bad in the polls.

Which is a waste. They could've been the perfect alternative to Wilders, since somehow they were spared in the whole 'crush the established order' business.

[Duuring]

I disagree. They're a typical left-populist party and their backing of the no-campaign during the referendum was nothing short of absolutely shameful. They still have many communists and other 'anti-imperialists' in their party organisation. They're doing some good stuff, of course, like the recent campaign to abolish youth minimum wage, but all in all I'm very happy they're struggeling. Their leader will resign after this election, too.

[Riddlez]

I disagree. They're a typical left-populist party and their backing of the no-campaign during the referendum was nothing short of absolutely shameful. They still have many communists and other 'anti-imperialists' in their party organisation. They're doing some good stuff, of course, like the recent campaign to abolish youth minimum wage, but all in all I'm very happy they're struggeling. Their leader will resign after this election, too.

He will?

I can get behind your reservations but surely you'd rather see the SP in power than PVV?

[Duuring]

I rather see neither of them in power.

The following might not be easy to follow for non-Dutchies, but nevertheless:

Yeah, he will. You might have noticed the small rebellion in their faction a few weeks ago. Add to that the fact that Lilian Marijnissen, daughter of Jan 'Mao Zedong' Marijnissen (Their previous leader who was both faction leader and party chairman) has been put on no. 3 on the list, despite having no experience on the national level. Roemer (their current leader) has been unable to give to them a national victory and, looking at the polls, it's very unlikely he'll win it this time. He'll resign or be voted out - maybe not directly after the election, but surely before the one after this.

Now, if you look at any possible sucessors, it's noteworthy that many senior MP's aren't returning or are unlikely to return. Harry van Bommel and Sharon Gesthuizen are both leaving politics. Jasper van Dijk, a senior and active MP on especially education has been put on place 14 of the list. Considering the Socialists are polling at anything between 11 and 16, it's not position that assures election. It's very odd why someone who has been active, succesful and an MP for over 10 years is put on such a low and unsecure position. To me, it's clear that the party establishment is paving the way for Lilian Marijnissen to take over. Maybe another MP will be faction leader for a few years so Lilian can built up her expertise.

[StevenChilton]

I'm not a Hollander, but who's likely to be PM after the elections? From the opinion polls (the collated ones on Wikipedia anyway) it looks like there will have to be a grand coalition of some kind since nobody wants to work with PVV and they're probably going to emerge as the largest party. I dunno if that analysis is wrong correct me if it is.

[Riddlez]

I'm not a Hollander, but who's likely to be PM after the elections? From the opinion polls (the collated ones on Wikipedia anyway) it looks like there will have to be a grand coalition of some kind since nobody wants to work with PVV and they're probably going to emerge as the largest party. I dunno if that analysis is wrong correct me if it is.

THe point with the PVV, is that the polls are usually higher than what he actually gains after election days, since many of his followers don't trust 'the system' and don't turn up to vote (which is rather dumb).

YET, because he has such a major chance of winning, his voters may this year very well turn up.

Then we face the following problem: there is currently only 1 party that would ever agree to working together with Wilders, and that party is 2 seats strong.. at the moment, and they most likely will not gain any seats coming election. The rest of the party publicly stated they will not work together with the PVV, so any chance of a Wilders-led government are gone.
Of the other parties, however, none comes above 30 seats ()out of 150 and 76 for a majority). So without Wilders, there will be no effective government, because a coalition of 6 or 7 parties won't ever work out.

Even IF Wilders has ALL the seats in the polls, and EVERYONE would be DYING to work with him, it'd take at least 4 parties for a government.

SO yeah. We're fucked.

[Duuring]

My money is on another term for Rutte. A right-wing coalition of the Liberals, Social-Liberals and the Christian-Democrats seems most likely, but such a coalition polls at 50-60 seats. However, 50+ (Pensioners party) is doing pretty good in the polls and they are publicaly stating they want to be in government. But even if they're accepted in the coalition, that still won't be enough for a majority, and they'll need the help of the Greens, or Labour, or, most likely, what we call the 'small Christian Parties'. But the Social-Liberals and the small Christian Parties have very opposing platforms, so such a minority-coalition-construct will be very fragile. Still, I think this scenario is the most likely based on the current polls. I could be dead wrong, of course, because this is a pretty new situation.

The parties on the left are also stating they want to form a left-wing coalition government but I just don't feel that's really realistic at this point. Labour, the socialists, the greens combined poll at roughly 43 seats. With the social-liberals, 55. How they're supposed to reach 76, I just don't know.

there is currently only 1 party that would ever agree to working together with Wilders, and that party is 2 seats strong.. at the moment, and they most likely will not gain any seats coming election

I think you mean VNL (a PVV-splitoff), right? They'll be back, I think. People think that they and Forum voor Democratie will keep eachother out of the parliament, but VNL has a better organisation with local figures and chapters, whereas FvD campaigns only online and on universities. Don't underestimate the power of the ground campaign.

[Riddlez]

I am actually pleasantly surprised by our dear Friend Baudet. He is a liberal at heart but still believes the state should take care of the weakest in our society, however weirdly that combines.
I am detested by his character, but the points of this party align very much with my own. Except for the direct democracy part, the chosen mayors and president. That could lock-down prograssion such as we are seeing in the U.S. Not that his 'direct democracy' thing would actually make ity, it'd need a constitutional amendment. Which won't fly. Ever.

And, now we're on the constitution, his plan for defense are unconstitutional as well. It is illegal to an isolationist when it comes to the military. You just can't.

[Duuring]

I support the direct election of mayors. Our current system is just odd and there's no real point to it. However, there are plenty of small counties with a few thousand voters or less, that don't necessarily want or can handle direct elections. Local government councils should be able to elect their mayor or decide to hold an direct election for it. And the constitutional amendment might very well pass, plenty of parties are in favour of it or will be willing to vote for the above mentioned idea.

His plan for direct election of the prime minister is unworkable, though. For the non-dutchies: He proposes we should give people two votes: One for which party to vote for, and one for who should form the government. However, I'm guessing that for most people, both those votes will go to the same party which whoever wins might just get 20-25% of the vote. What if he/she can't form a government? What if his proposed government is directly sent out of office with a vote of no confidence? New elections? There's no real point to it, because the biggest party always gets the first try at forming a government anyway. His proposal to give the PM much more power also basically makes him a president. Which we don't need. Our system works fine.

I don't think he so much wants to be isolationist. He's very clearly pro-Russian, though. He has mentioned this on various occasions even when Russia wasn't even a subject of debate, going as far as stating that not signing the AA-treaty with Ukraine would 'immediatly lead to peace' in Eastern Ukraine. 

The Dutch constitution pledge for support in international affairs is nice and all, but it's just a friendly pledge that is in no way enforced.

[Furrnox]

I am actually pleasantly surprised by our dear Friend Baudet. He is a liberal at heart but still believes the state should take care of the weakest in our society, however weirdly that combines.
I am detested by his character, but the points of this party align very much with my own. Except for the direct democracy part, the chosen mayors and president. That could lock-down prograssion such as we are seeing in the U.S. Not that his 'direct democracy' thing would actually make ity, it'd need a constitutional amendment. Which won't fly. Ever.

And, now we're on the constitution, his plan for defense are unconstitutional as well. It is illegal to an isolationist when it comes to the military. You just can't.

So a social-liberal..

[Riddlez]

As I said, a tad weird. He seems to get off on the Scandinavian model.

[Duuring]

Not really. He wants to drastically lower taxes and even abolish some like inheritence-tax. On the spending department, he's in favour of, quote 'Drastic cuts in the size of the government and the billions of euros spend on subsidies every year'. Which doesn't really mean anything.

As far as welfare goes, the only thing he says that he's in favour of keeping it for 'those who really need it'. Guess what - everybody shares that opinion, it's just that we all feel different about who really needs it.

I don't think he really cares about the economic side of politics, and just gets off on cultural and political stuff.

[StevenChilton]

lmao http://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/trump-transition-team-asked-eu-officials-which-countries-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu/